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Consistent Scorers

Posted on May 27, 2011 by rapsfan7

What is a consistent scorer? Some people seem to think it is someone with a good field goal percentage. I’m here to set the record straight, and to come up with a list of the most consistent elite scorers in the league.

So how would we define consistency when it comes to scoring in the NBA. One of the best ways is probably to look at how much a player’s scoring differs from his average on a game to game basis. This is called the variance, and we will explore this in this article.

The formula for what we will call PPG VARIANCE is as follows.

Where n is the number of games a player participates in during the season (n is always less than or equal to 82), i is an number between 1 and n, x_i is the player’s scoring output in the i^th game of the season, and X is the player’s scoring average for the 2010-2011 season. For those of you who don’t understand summation notation, this calculates the average squared distance between a player’s scor

ing in an individual game and their scoring average for the season.

Now it would be nice to be able to compute this for every player in the league, but unfortunately I don’t have nearly enough time to do that. So for this article we focus on elite scorers, which I will arbitrarily define to be players who averaged over 20 points per game this season. So our study will focus on the following 19 players.

Kevin Durant, Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Amare Stoudemire, Derrick Rose, Monta Ellis, Kevin Martin, Dirk Nowitzki, Blake Griffin, Russell Westbrook, Lamarcus Aldridge, Andrea Bargnani, Danny Granger, Brook Lopez, Kevin Love, and Zach Randolph.

I computed the PPG VARIANCE for the previous 19 players. Remember that if a player has a lower PPG VARIANCE than another player it means that on average that player’s per game scoring output is closer to his season average than the 2^nd player, which would imply that the first player is a more consistent scorer. Without further ado, here are the results (in order from smallest to largest).

Player	PPG VARIANCE	Player	PPG VARIANCE
Zach Randolph	39.86382	Lebron James	54.09966
Kevin Durant	41.46433	Kevin Martin	58.6725
Danny Granger	44.5528	Brook Lopez	59.31365
Dirk Nowitzki	46.30062	Kevin Love	60.17114
Russell Westbrook	47.26249	Lamarcus Aldridge	60.48041
Kobe Bryant	48.44438	Andrea Bargnani	63.78972
Amare Stoudemire	48.70957	Dwyane Wade	71.19581
Dwight Howard	52.39382	Carmelo Anthony	73.59352
Blake Griffin	53.10366	Monta Ellis	89.74984
Derrick Rose	53.78997

So from the above table, we see that by this measure Zach Randolph was the most consistent elite scorer in the league, and Monta Ellis was by far the least consistent.

However, is this an accurate measure of consistency? If a player averages 25 points per game, and gets 25 points on 10 shots one night and 25 points on 25 shots the next

night, is he being consistently productive? By the previous measure, he would be considered consistent, but I don’t think that’s really true. Which is why another calculation needs to be done.

We will now define TS% VARIANCE as

Note that this is the exact same as the PPG VARIANCE formula, except we replace scoring average by season TS% (Y), and game by game scoring with game by game TS% (y_i). As with PPG VARIANCE a lower TS%% VARIANCE implies more consistent scoring.

The reason we use TS% instead of regular FG% is that TS% takes into account both the additional value of 3 pointers and free throws, where FG% counts regular field goals and 3 pointers the same amount, and completely disregards free throws. For any who don’t know, the formula for True Shooting Percentage is

Points/(2*(FGA + .44*FTA))

Doing the TS% VARIANCE calculation for the same 19 players yielded the following results.

Player	TS% Variance	Player	TS% Variance
Kobe Bryant	.009744	Zach Randolph	.015197
Lebron James	.010283	Kevin Martin	.015922
Russell Westbrook	.011181	Carmelo Anthony	.017120
Dwight Howard	.011262	Dwyane Wade	.017304
Brook Lopez	.012255	Monta Ellis	.018556
Blake Griffin	.012311	Danny Granger	.019819
Amare Stoudemire	.012812	Dirk Nowitzki	.020285
Kevin Durant	.012942	Andrea Bargnani	.021580
Lamarcus Aldridge	.014153	Kevin Love	.026834
Derrick Rose	.014248

So by this measure, Kobe and Lebron are the most consistent shooters, and Love is by far the least consistent.

So finally, to determine which of these elite scorers are the most consistent, we must combine these two measures.

The first way we might do this would be to simply look at how each player ranked in each measure, add the two numbers together, and then rank the players accordingly. This would be alright, but it probably isn’t the perfect measure. Why is that? If you look at the TS% VARIANCE table, you see that Griffin is only the tiniest bit behind Lopez, and is thus one spot behind. However, Love is in 20th and is extremely far behind Bargnani, who is one spot ahead of him. If we were to just add the rankings, Love would be penalized the same amount (one point) for how far behind Bargnani he is as Blake would be penalized for being behind Lopez. However, Blake and Lopez are essentially tied, while Love is clearly getting destroyed. Also, our final table would do nothing to show the differences in consistencies between 2 players, it would only show the rank. This would not accurately represent a combination of the 2 measures, so we need a better one.

We want to be able to just add the numbers together. However, since the numbers for FG% VARIANCE are as high as 80, but TS% VARIANCE numbers are not even remotely close to 1, we need to introduce a scale factor. Define the Scale Factor (Q) as

So for our sample, the average PPG VARIANCE is 56.155, and the average TS% Variance is .01546. We then calculate Q to be 3631.459 for our sample.

We then multiply each player’s TS% VARIANCE by this scale factor to get Adjusted TS% Variance. The results are shown in the following table.

Player	Adjusted TS% VARIANCE	Player	Adjusted TS% VARIANCE
Kobe Bryant	35.38493	Zach Randolph	55.18728
Lebron James	37.34229	Kevin Martin	57.82009
Russell Westbrook	40.60334	Carmelo Anthony	62.17058
Dwight Howard	40.89749	Dwyane Wade	62.83876
Brook Lopez	44.50353	Monta Ellis	67.38535
Blake Griffin	44.70689	Danny Granger	71.97187
Amare Stoudemire	46.52625	Dirk Nowitzki	73.66415
Kevin Durant	46.99834	Andrea Bargnani	78.36689
Lamarcus Aldridge	51.39604	Kevin Love	97.44657
Derrick Rose	51.74103

That looks better, those numbers have the same average size as those for PPG VARIANCE. We can now finally define what I will call a consistency value. The formula is simply.

Consistency Value= PPG VARIANCE + Adjusted TS% VARIANCE

Or alternatively

Consistency Value= PPG Variance + Q*TS% VARIANCE

So our final results are as follows

Player	Consistency Value	Player	Consistency Value
Kobe Bryant	83.82932	Lamarcus Aldridge	111.8764
Russell Westbrook	87.86763	Kevin Martin	116.4926
Kevin Durant	88.46267	Danny Granger	116.5247
Lebron James	91.44395	Dirk Nowitzki	119.9648
Dwight Howard	93.29131	Dwyane Wade	134.0346
Zach Randolph	95.0511	Carmelo Anthony	135.7641
Amare Stoudemire	95.2361	Andrea Bargnani	142.1566
Blake Griffin	97.81055	Monta Ellis	157.1352
Brook Lopez	103.8172	Kevin Love	157.6177
Derrick Rose	105.531

So the winner is… Kobe? That’s surprising, at least to me, since his game is based mostly around mid range jump shots which I would generally think are more inconsistent. After him you have Westbrook, which makes sense due to his high number of free throw attempts and fast break buckets. Durant also makes sense due to his extremely high free throw attempts at a consistently high percentage. After that you have Lebron, and then 5 big men in a row.

The biggest surprise is probably how low Wade is. As a player who draws a large number of free throws and attacks the rim a lot, he would seem to be a consistent player. Apparently that is not the case. Love finished lower than expected simply because he had BY FAR the worst TS% variance. After adjustment he was almost 20 points behind 19^th place. Ellis had a similar problem with PPG Variance.

Some final notes: This is not a perfect measure of consistency. For one it doesn’t do anything to account for minutes played. If Dwight plays only 20 minutes in a game because his team is up 30, that hurts his PPG VARIANCE. However, over the course of a season the effect isn’t that large. It also ignores other stats like turnovers that could be considered a part of being a consistent scorer.

Finally, and I cannot stress this enough… BEING A MORE CONSISTENT SCORER DOES NOT MEAN YOU ARE A BETTER SCORER! This is extremely important. Durant and Westbrook have nearly identical consistency by this measure, but would you rather have Durant scoring 28 points on a TS% of 59% or Westbrook scoring 22 on a TS% of 54%. It’s no contest. Being a more consistent scorer means we can better understand what to expect from that player on a day to day basis. Nothing more.

Hopefully you found this interesting. I appreciate any feedback and look out for future articles that may go into more detail with this stat.

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Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged best, consistent, Dirk, Dwight Howard, efficiency, EFG%, Kevin Durant, Kobe, NBA, percentage, PPG, Rose, Russell Westbrook, scoring, true shooting percentage, TS%, variance | 5 Comments

Slap On The Wrist: Why The NBA Can’t Control It’s Players

Posted on April 21, 2011 by The Pest

Open Wide Kobe, Your Feet Are Big

Kobe just recently threw a temper tantrum after not getting the call he wanted in a game. He threw his towel. He punched his team mate Joe Smith. Then in rage called the ref a “Fucking Faggot.” Was he thrown out of the game? No. If there’s ever been a better example that ‘respect for the game’ rules are nothing more then a bunk marketing ploy designed to give already incompetent refs more control to ‘enhance’ the NBA via the whistle, I have not seen it.

But this article is really not about Kobe or his slur. He should have been suspended games for screaming slurs on national television. Had he called the ref a “Kike” or some other ignorant, hate filled term I’m sure this would be the result. But this article is also not about how the NBA not so secretly condones a league of ignorant homophobes.

No, this is about the league’s ineffectiveness to do administrate itself in any kind of disciplinary fashion. This failure results in players/staff who do, say, and behave any way they please. It’s about why this happens.

The league fined Kobe yesterday for his offence. 100,000 USD. It sounds steep for one word, even if it was hate filled and ignorant. But was it? Last year Kobe made 25 million dollars from playing basketball making the fine 1/250′th of his total salary. Did Kobe even blink when he got the fine? I doubt it considering the blatant behaviour on national television. He knows he got off easy.

The average American makes 32,000 USD per year. 1/250 of 32,000 means Kobe was fined the equivalent of 128 dollars. Lets compare this to a normal response. Isiah Washington got fired after winning awards for Gray’s Anatomy. His infraction was not hate filled. There was no malice. The gay dude he was joking with was cool with it. He got fired. In reality, they fined Kobe less a speeding ticket. People still speed and players will still scream bigoted remarks in games.

That’s not even the beginning of the issue. The league loves to make a show of spanking it’s players over it’s knee. But the fines they hand out are actually just books players can stuff down their pants. Kobe makes much more money from endorsements then from playing basketball. In 2011 Kobe is reported to be grossing upwards of 64 million dollars. 1/640′th of that went to his ‘punishment’. The equivalent fine Joe Average would pay is 50 bucks, or, about what Kobe makes every 30 seconds.

When Questioned About This Enormous Yacht,
Mikel Prokorhov Did Not Even Know Where
In The World It Was. Would a 16 Cent Fine
Phase You? Think About How Absurd This Is.

It’s not just Kobe though. So lets break down some recent actions by the league in it’s effort to pretend like it does anything to induce good behaviour.

The League fined the Nets $50,000 for Jay-Z’s contact with underclass men during the NCAA tournament. The Nets owner is an oligarch worth over 9.5 billion dollars. Yes, they fined him for 1/190,000′th of his net worth. The average American net worth is around that $32,000 mark again. So the NBA fined Mikel for roughly an average man’s 16 cents. 17 cents if you round up. Why bother fining at all?

But these are just the crazy rich people, right? The exceptions? Sadly, no. JR Smith was fined $25,000 for a nasty flagrant foul. About 1/268′th of his 6.7 million dollar salary. That translates to about 120 Bucks for intentionally hitting Raja Bell in the head on a play.

25k for hitting a guy in the head? But what happens when you merely speak honestly in an interview about the officials. The guys who have been given ‘more’ power. Stan Van Gundy and Shaq have both received $35,000 fines merely for commenting on the mediocre job refs were doing. It’s still irrelevant since Shaq is one of the richest athletes in history and at 4-5 million per SVG won’t be losing much sleep.

Their idea of discipline is sending a child to a room full of toys. The only reason they do that is to look good in front of all the other parents at day care. There’s little point to fines and the bigger a star/richer you are the less you have to give a damn what anyone thinks.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mezEH12vXTI?fs=1]

Shaq’s Reaction To Being Fined More Then The
Average American Makes In A Whole Year. Does He Care?

The league favours stars to the point of embarrassment. Kobe punches people and uses hate speech on TV and is not even thrown out of that particular game. The league fosters an environment where players feel they are actually above the laws set up by the state as Gilbert Arenas thought it was cool to bring guns to work as a joke.

Stephen Jackson fired his piece into the air outside a strip club and Delonte West thought it was cool to just drive around with a shot gun on his motor cycle.

Is there a better way? Of course there is. Instead of fining cash amounts or simply suspending players, fine them for a percentage of their salary. Then instead of a 30k fine for talking about the refs it’s only x%. Actually, lets just stop fining players for expressing their opinions. Then fine heavy when players actually do something wrong.

It’s obvious the league is aware the system is not even close to working since they are the ones who sign the cheques. The players know that they’re above their employers anyway with massive contracts. Want proof? Kobe just made a little over $30,000 (a third of his fine) in the short time it took me to write this article.

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Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged complaint, David Stern, discipline, Dwight Howard, fine, Kobe Bryant, mediocre, Mikel Prokohov, NBA, officials, refs, terrible | 5 Comments

In Defence Of: Allen Iverson

Posted on March 31, 2011 by The Pest

Choosing article subjects is tough. Topical lacks staying power. Historical ignores the present. Wait too long and the window closes. This article has sat in draft for over a year and I realized that every day it’s less relevant. Lets discuss Allen Iverson and the hose job his legacy received. Now.

The clichés are common. AI was a selfish scorer. He was The (C)answer. His comments about practice are engrained in the sports vernacular forever.

People rarely examine his career logically though. Few consider what he did and the context he played in. They just say selfish and use AI for an easy punching bag to further their career as a sports writer. Lets not do this. Lets examine AI’s worst perceptions and try to shed light on reality of one of basketballs biggest stars of all time.

They all boil down to one bone of contention:

AI is a selfish player who’s only concern on the court was scoring his own points.

Over his career he has more dimes per then Billups, Bibby, Jason Williams, Tony Parker, Damon Stoudamire, Jason Williams, Larry Bird, Avery Johnson and is just behind Tim Hardaway and Wade. AI was a scorer who often played 2 guard instead of traditional point. He still got more assists then all time point guards. AI is ahead of all 2 guards all time except Wade who played plenty of point himself pre-LBJ/Bosh. Setting up his team was obviously a major part of AI’s game.

You say this. People claim it’s just because he always had the ball in his hands. While this is true for Jordan and the plethora of other guards who also dominated the ball but never dished for as many dimes.

AI didn’t change his game to score more points. In a previous article I crunched AI’s Scoring Assist Differential. When AI scored more he got pretty much the same number of assists. He got more points by raising his FG% by almost 10%. Selfish players alter their game to score by taking tougher shots instead of passing for better ones. AI, much to the contrary of popular belief, did just the opposite.

Why was Iverson scoring so much? The answer has quite a bit to do with setting.

You can break Iverson’s career down to two distinct eras. Philly and Denver.

Philadelphia 76ers

2 words describe the supporting cast. Offensively. Absent.

This Is How LA Lost It’s Only Game. All AI.

The season he averaged 31.4 PPG he also played almost 44 minutes a game trying to get W’s. They were the 23′rd ranked offensive team in the league and had almost no other viable scoring options. Was he going to pass to washed up 34 year old Derrick Coleman? Or his first option, 7.4 ppg career scorer Aaron McKie? Or 35 year old offensively finished Mutombo? Or Matt Harpring? Or 6.8 ppg career scoring sensation Eric Snow? Hmm… no.

No one had ability to create their own shot. Except AI. He played his heart out to make things easy so they could get W’s. People blamed AI and his famous selfishness despite many wins and a trip to the finals for the role players on his team. You still hear too selfish. Can’t make other better. Is this true?

Lets reflect on how those players did with AI:

Matt Harpring: 11.1 ppg was his career high in 02, more then double what he’d done before.

Eric Snow: 11.9 PPG, .3 PPG off of his career high that happened the next year with AI as well. He shot 44%, 2′nd highest ever which followed next year’s AI fueled 45%.

Career: Bench Player.
Career With AI:
2′nd Leading Scorer
On A Finals Team

Aaron Mckie: 12.2 ppg. 45%. His career high ppg. Twice his career average. His career high FG % occured the previous year with AI in 01. He also shot his second best from 3 at almost 40%, exceeded only one season in Portland.

Mutombo: 11.5 ppg. The most he had scored in 6 seasons when he was still in his prime as Atlanta’s franchise guy. His 6′th highest PPG mark of his whole career. After his 11.5 the next year in Philly with AI, he would never score over 5.8 PPG again.

Coleman: His career was done, but 15.1 PPG was the highest he would post in his last 5 seasons in the league.

The entire starting line up put up career highs or totally revitalized seasons in points and shooting percentage. AI drew that out of them. They stank, but stank a little less when Iverson led them to the highest play in their careers.

But stats are not everything!!!

Indeed. Lets ignore the stats in Philly and focus on careers.

When has Aaron McKie been the 2′nd option on a championship contender and finalist team?

When was the last time Mutombo was the starting center on a finals team?

Or Eric Snow (Cleveland does not count because he was a zombie then)?

They were key contributors on one of the very best teams in basketball and batting WAY above their station. Kind of like the lead dork banging the hot cheerleader at the end of Revenge Of The Nerds. Every one of those guys are bench players who see a few minutes on a contending team of the day like the Kings or Lakers.

With AI they made the finals and were the only team to beat the juggernaut Lakers behind AI’s incredible 48 point, 5 steal, 6 dime, 5 board performance. AI averaged 47.4 MPG and 35.6 PPG vs LA losing the next two games by only 9 and 5 points. Which sounds not so great.

Then you consider that the stacked Blazers (Pippen/Sheed/Stoudamire/Steve Smith/Bonzi Wells/Sabonis/Dale Davis/Rod Strickland/Detlef Schremph/Will Purdue) were blown out by 13, 18 and 13 points.

The stacked Kings (Webber/Peja Stojakovic/Vlade Divac/Hedo Turkoglu/Jason Williams/Nick Anderson/Doug Christie/Lawrence Funderburke/Bobby Jackson/Jon Barry/Scot Pollard) lost by 3, 6, and then were blown out by 22 and 13.

The stacked Spurs (Tim Duncan/David Robinson/Sean Elliot/Avery Johnson/Antonio Daniels/Derek Anderson/Danny Ferry/Steve Kerr/even Malik Rose) lost by 8, and were blown out by 14, 29 and 39 points.

AI, leading his motley crew of role players, played a hair under 48 minutes a game. Their worst loss was by 14 points when second leading scorer Aaron McKie shot 1/9. Every other game was competitive.

People credit MJ for making his team mates better. I just find it interesting that he was obviously surrounded with far superior HOF caliber all stars who could ‘almost’ win a title without him. AI somehow hurt his team of role players by making them more effective statistically AND in general carrying a lottery team within 3 wins of the title vs one of the most dominant teams in hoops history.

The degree that AI made his team over-achieve pretty much blows MJ out of the water but AI will never get credit for being the awesome leader that he was. With the exception of Mutombo (who only played 20 games or so that season) none of those guys gets off the Bulls bench. Ever. But they’re starting in the finals.

If you put AI in Jordan’s position, in his prime, with Pippen/Rodman/Kukoc and Harper, I think he wins many titles. With just Pippen and the cast offs of the Bulls first title that took the Knicks to 7 games (who went to 7 games vs the champion Rockets) he merely wins a couple to a few. Does Jordan win rings in Iverson’s shoes? Pretty much: no. He ends up just like Iverson.

Okay, that makes too much sense the nay sayers say. So the fall back slam is:

AI couldn’t play with good players

That’s what I’ve heard. Time to consider the second era of AI’s career.

Denver Nuggets

The closest foil we have is his two post-prime Denver seasons. His last 2 seasons before NBA retirement. He posted two career high FG%’s. Note there were 0 complaints when his shots went from 25/game to under 19 and he scored the lowest PPG since his sophomore year.

When he had better teammates in Denver his FG% climbed up to 45% while his TO’s dropped from 4 to yet another career career mark, 3 TO/game. He happily let his attempts drop to an 11 year low to make someone else the team’s clear leading scorer.

Funny all that, since some Philly trends did carry over. That same Allen Iverson trend of everyone around him playing the best offensive basketball of their careers.

Melo Has Not Produced More Or Shot
A Higher %’age Before Or After AI

Melo posted a career high 28.7 PPG.

JR Smith posted a career high 13 PPG.

Marcus Camby posted the highest PPG in the last 6 years of his career, 11.5, and the second highest he’d posted since he was in his prime in NYC 6 years before (and a special note, oh my, what a player he was there. Drool!)

Nene posted a career high despite being hurt.

Najera was .1 ppg off from his career high and has never scored more since.

Earl Boykins posted his career high.

Iverson was exactly the opposite of a selfish scorer. Team-mates playing better followed his entire career. That is because so few scorers of AI’s ability were such willing passers.

Only 5 players in history have averaged over 25 PPG for their careers and over 6 dimes. Iverson. Wade. Lebron. Jerry West. Oscar Robertson. Making Iverson one of the least selfish prolific scorers in history. In the modern era only Jordan and AI have put up 30/8 for a whole season. No one else. Not one.

People refuse to accept it. Team Canswer!

Before AI Denver had the 17′th best offense in the NBA. After trading a very good prime Andre Miller for post-prime AI that went up to the 8′th best offence despite the team’s injuries. How does trading a selfish offensive player past his prime for an awesome passing PG in his prime improve your offensive rank by more then double? It can’t is the short answer. Otherwise a very good Andre Miller has to suck. Or the opinion of AI has to change.

“Why he didn’t average 8 or 9 a game for his career?” some ask. Answer… AI was a scorer? Maybe? It’s like criticizing Nash or Kidd for not scoring 30 ppg. Especially spending his prime surrounded by terrible offensive and injury ravaged teams.

So Why Are His Efficiency Stats So Low? How Did He Improve His Teams Posting Those Numbers?

Left: The True Answer. Right: The True Canswer

Defences zoned in trying to slow him and pulled down AI’s percentages. With distracted defences his teammates killed while his stats like FG% and assists/game went down. If they miss frequently, defences will cheat to shut you down. Iverson’s team was filled with terrible offensive players. Perhaps the most terrible of any successful team in history.

Iverson moved the ball around plenty but always got it back because no one on his team was capable of creating a shot for themselves or a teammate. Often left with no choice but to force offense. It all comes into focus when you compare AI’s prime efficiency to his improved efficiency in Denver past his prime.

So Why Did AI Make People Better?

Defences collapsed routinely to stop his penetration leading to fouls and open shots for all. That’s the short answer.

AI would break a defence in half, score if he had a good look or run options to find the open man. If “hockey assists” were recorded Iverson would be an all time leader. Not being the second last guy to touch the ball doesn’t mean you are not the one responsible for creating the play.

Think of how teams approach guarding truly great scorers. There are two options you hear ad nauseam:

1. Let him get his points but shut down everyone else. This works if he’s only a little great and can’t routinely win games all by himself.

2. Gear the entire D to reduce his effectiveness (no way we can stop him) and force his teammates to beat us. This only happens when ‘him’ is so good that option 1 leads to a big fat loss.

Team’s playing Iverson ‘always’ picked option #2. Shutting down his Philly teams simple. They stank and were already plodding. Better to focus on Iverson which explains his lower FG%. It’s also why his career high efficiency from the field, arc and handle at the point happened counter-intuitively past his prime in two straight Denver seasons. Career efficiency at age 32? For a guy who’s game relied so much on speed and athleticism? On a brand new team adjusting to a new role? Only one conclusion makes sense.

AI was not forcing bad shots in Philly. He was being asked to take them.
People say he needs the ball too much to be effective but it’s not shown to be the case in any statistical way. Melo’s scoring didn’t drop in 07, it actually went up while his shooting stayed virtually the same. AI’s dimes stayed consistent. What did change was his TO’s which dropped to career lows.

AI Is A System Player

This argument goes this way:

He’s good with bad teammates like in Philly. But he’d have been a terrible with someone like Pippen or really anyone not a spot-up shooter. He needs to dominate the ball. With out a system around him AI is less then productive, he’s a hindrance.

AI Still Brings It, It’s Love Of The Game

Denver’s lack of dominance with Iverson has one true cause. Health. If only Melo/AI played full seasons (they missed 55 gams between them) Denver wins 55 games.

It didn’t end there though. Yakhouba Diawara started 19 games. Camby played hurt/was injured half the season. Nene was out or in recovery. Kenyon Martin’s micro-fracture recovery took 2 seasons. Chris Andersen was suspended. None of those things are on AI.

Factor them in and you’re easily talking a 60 win team and 1 seed for the whole playoffs. A lock for the West finals and a legit title contender. All they needed to do was win 6 more games (with one win over the Lakers) and instead of being the 8′th seed they are a 1 seed with home court.

AI did not hinder Philly. AI did not hold back Denver. Asked to carry the offensive load or not Iverson delivered. He didn’t need a system catering to his game and Melo is not close to a spot up shooter. His game didn’t rely on a hobbled Marcus Camby for all their inside presence, his team did. AI’s game did not have problems. AI’s teams had problems. One had a front office problem. The other had a medical problem.
You say things like this, still they’ll continue to argue:

Chauncy Billups Did More With The Same Team, AKA The Bizzaro Third Era Of Allen Iverson

Yes, the bizzaro third era Chauncy Billups. AI didn’t play, but people act like he was kept in a cage plotting to ruin Denver’s season and only Billups prevented him from getting out. All that Denver accomplished with Billups reflects a failure of Iverson… right? The Nuggets came within two games of the finals and Iverson didn’t make it out of the first round. So AI sucks cuz Billups ‘fixed’ everything. Right?

Lets examine this particular myth in the most astute sophisticated terms we can find.

FUCK NO!

This did NOT happen. How drastic was this soaring improvement? Is 4 more wins drastic? Hmm… it’s not.

Did Billups have the same team? No.

1. Kenyon Martin was playing aggressively again and had finally recovered from double micro-fracture knee surgery.

2. Nene didn’t even play in a game with Iverson in 2008. In 2009 he started 76 games with a fully healthy season. He’s an amazing defensive center who also led the league in FG%.

3. Chris Andersen came back from suspension. He brought so much to that team as their sixth man and energy guy. He was not even on the Roster when AI was there. He was a candidate for sixth man of the year in both 2009 and 2010 when he was 2 votes shy of second place. (more on his performance from the bench shortly)

They were better though. Why? Because the only players who showed marked improvement after AI left were players I just mentioned who were NOT there the season before (and yes, K-Mart replacing 08′s washed up Kenyon Martin does count).

Chris Anderson could only play 20 MPG and averaged 6.2 boards and 2.5 blocks in a measly 20 MPG with crazy clutch play in the post season. Per 36 minutes that’s 11 points, 12 boards and a freakish 4.5 blocks a game. Without his clutch play they probably get swept by the Lakers in 09 just like in 08, except it probably happens in the first round, not the West finals.

South Park’s Equivalent Of
The Answer, Confidence? No Problem.

3 huge contributors are not why they won 4 more games. It’s not because Chauncy Billups was ‘better’ dishing fewer assists, scoring less points, shooting at a lower percentage while putting up the same assist percentage.

Was Billups more effective because?:

Melo scored significantly less points at a lower percentage.

Or cuz Linus Klezia scores significantly less points at lower percentage.

Or cuz JR Smith’s FG% fell.

Or cuz Anthony Carter’s FG% fell.

Billups manned the point while the Nuggets had their first healthy team since AI was still in Philly. He played 35 minutes, scored 17 points, dished 6.4 dimes and shot 42%. He was unable to raise the level of play of the rest of the team. With far superior talent they only won 4 more games then with AI. A pithy gain. With far superior talent they had nearly identical offensive and defensive ratings only that AI had to help carry the team through injuries and Billups was able to rest on his laurels knowing how deep his team was.

Ironically Billups is the system player who could never seem to get anything going for so many years of his career till he landed on a do what you’re told Larry Brown team. They made a system that could win with poor offensive performance from the point. A system that depended on it’s shooting guard for as many dimes as it’s point guard.

I like Chauncy. It’s not fair to compare him to AI who’s an all time great but this perception has got to go. He was not better. Even AI’s post-prime production eats Denver Billups for breakfast. There is no traditional or advanced metric that gives Billups any edge. Except ‘hype’ based metrics I suppose.

But Billups’ Denver Teams Functioned So Much Better

Iverson == Heart. Easily One Of The Most Honest,
Forthright Confessions By Any Star In The History Of Sports

True, but no team functions better with vastly inferior front lines and talent.If Billups was better in Denver than it would show up somewhere no? They pushed LA in the West finals after getting swept by them the year before and that’s all it’s really based on.

Lets look at that series then. They won 2 games.

Game 1: Billups had a pretty mediocre game. 8 dimes, but he shot 5/13 and 2/7 from 3 for 18 points. They lost by 3 points and were only in it because Melo carried them shooting 70% for 39 points. In case anyone forgot, this is AI dominating the undefeated juggernaut by himself.

Game 2: Gritty 2 point team effort for a squeaked out a 3 point win. Billups had 4 dimes and 27 points shooting 40%.

Game 3: 6 point loss. Totally mediocre game. 18 point on 5/15, 2/7 from 3, 7 dimes 4 TO’s.

Game 4: 19 point win. Was it because Billups led them there with 24 points on 7/16, 1/6 from 3 and 3 dimes? Or because in 24 minutes Andersen yanked down 14 boards and two blocks. Not to mention, Kenyon Martin had 15 boards and 2 blocks. And Nene had 13 boards. Billups had 3 assists and scored 24 points on 43% shooting and going 1 of 6 from 3. Think about who contributed to the winning, who choked, and who gets credit.

Game 5: 9 point loss. 12 points on 4/7, 3/6 from 3, 5 dimes. Is this bad? It’s more effective shooting but that’s becasue it’s such lower volume yet not replaced with more dimes. It’s certainly not good.

Game 6: 25 point loss. 10 points, 9 dimes, 2/7 shooting, 1/3 from 3, 5 to’s. Nice on the dimes… finally. It’s not making up for playing terribly, getting shut down and not being able to produce after your confidence is broken. I watched this series. That’s exactly what happened. No one ever talks about it. Could AI have played mediocre basketball while being carried to wins? I think so? Would AI have his confidence broken? Never. AI beat a much stronger Laker team with Shaq all by himself, in their building, on a much grander stage.

Billups gets cred for ‘leading’ Denver so close to the finals. The reality is that Billups is not the reason they won games in that series. He didn’t even have a single good game. He choked when it really mattered. Billups got carried vs the Lakers and ultimately it’s his mediocre play that cost them a trip to the NBA finals.

I’ve got to repeat myself. I don’t mean bash on Billups. He’s a solid pro who took his own difficult path to top. Kudos. The same uninformed style arguments were used to slam while he was on that path. People never seem to learn that judging players on things beyond their control only produces unfounded opinions.

It’s never going to stop from casual fans. This is precisely why they are casual. But that’s not a reason true fans shouldn’t look deeper. After the 13 years of blood, sweat and tears he gave to this league (and continues to give to the sport in Turkey of all places) I think Allen Iverson deserves it.

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Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged 76ers, AI, Allen Iverson, blame, cancer, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncy Billups, excuse, Melo, NBA, Nene, Philly, reasons, selfish, sixers | 5 Comments

10 Reasons Why March Madness Destroys The NBA

Posted on March 24, 2011 by The Pest

Nothing Defines March Like A Bracket

I’ve heard all the reasons why NCAA hoops is inferior. The players suck. They are kids. The games are low scoring. It’s a joke compared to the NBA. Everyone who’s good is gone in a year or two. All very valid and I know these points all too well: I made them myself for years.

That is, till I finally filled out a bracket and sat down to watch “The MADNESS!” in all it’s glory. Instead of just seeing the championship game or the final four, I learned that the beauty of March is in the first two rounds. I learned watching crappy teams beat the better ones is unmatched. Here are 10 realities you nay sayers should consider about March. ( In my house “March” implies the Madness, simply because there is nothing else in the month that truly matters. That’s right, take it Easter!)

1. There are ‘plenty’ of good players in college. Great players even. Every year lots of them make it to the NBA as a result. In a good draft there can be 20 dudes who come in an contribute right away in all capacities on NBA teams. This year alone Blake Griffin and John Wall came in and ripped franchise player status from whoever was there before them as rookies.

This man = Amazing Player!

2. Being a good basketball player and making the NBA are not the same thing. Many amazing college guys are loaded with talent but merely lack the size or athletic ability to compete at the NBA. Pro hoops are dominated so much by those two things. Just because a 6 foot shooting guard is too small to defend 2′s in the NBA doesn’t mean he’s a bad scorer/player.

I can guarantee this: Gerry McNamara is an AMAZING basketball player. He’s 6’2″ in shoes and no, not as good as Nash or athletic like Iverson, but he’s amazing none the less. I watched him carry Melo for huge stretches on their way to an NCAA title. Fantastic. As was Stephen Curry. He’s yet to accomplish anything in his NBA career that compares to the ass kicking he gave the entire NCAA in 2008.

3. Teams in the NCAA are not stacked like the NBA. Powerhouse teams will have a guy, maybe two, who will be an elite NBA player. They’re better then everyone. But what’s so amazing to see is when the ‘sucky kids’ use heart to overcome the super teams. If heart can’t beat talent there’s really no point to sports at all. Nothing exemplifies this more then March.

4. These guys who ‘suck’ are actually more like you and me. Watching someone who has no hopes of a pro career hit massive shot after massive shot to beat someone who is headed for stardom is infinitely more entertaining then watching a stacked juggernaut plow through an NBA season. Tony Skinn is one of my favourite players of all time. He might end up selling insurance.

George Mason Didn’t Wear White Once
On Their Way To The Final Four. If You
Watch March, you Know Why This Is Amazing.

I watched him live the story he will be telling his grand children till the day he dies. It’s like how Boston fans rooted for Brian Scalanbrine because he was the closest to them and they related. Except instead of rooting for him to finally be put into garbage time or actually hit a shot in a game, I was rooting for him to win a national title as a starter. Have I ever been emotionally invested in a team more then George Mason? Probably not. They were like me beating guys like them.

5. Players in college are not paid money, and the vast majority of them never expect to be paid big money. Hoop is everything to them. Half the NBA lumbers around all season talking about how ‘it’s a business’ and frankly look bored most of the time. Everyone admits that the NBA season is much too long and would be better if it had half the games… you know, just like the NCAA season. Watching teams play their hearts out for nothing but the sport itself will always be better then watching ego driven dudes living in luxury play for their contracts.

6. Fans at college games are drunk.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB2KOhEceNM?fs=1]

Lets let Gus Johnson Tell You Why

Really drunk. And they’re into it like Charlie Sheen is into Bree Olsen and another line of coke. I just watched a game where I swear the fans didn’t stop jumping up and down for an entire half and were cheering at insane decibels entire game. March is like watching Dallas @ GSW in the 2007 playoffs for an entire month. I love the NBA, but I can hardly remember a game or crowd that matched that intensity.

7. Stars are stars, but they’re not given star treatment in any similar way shape or form as they are in the NBA. There’s still bad calls but there is so much less “well, that was close so we’ll give it to the star” situations. I just watched Grant Hill foul out because Kobe gave him an elbow while going by him and looked at the ref. Not in college. It makes for a cleaner and more pure game that’s not controlled by the refs, but by the players.

8. Teams play D. Those low scoring games? This is due to kids playing the way their coaches want them to. If an NBA coach told his players they’d be employing heavy pressing and pressure every minute of every game, what happens? He would lose his team of super stars in a month. They’re stars and in a nut shell lazy. One of the reasons Rick Pitino failed in the NBA was because he didn’t anticipate how players would know the right way to play, but wouldn’t care enough to do it. I love hoop, and watching Kevin Love’s UCLA teams break the backs of offensive juggernauts to me was just as entertaining as watching Memphis get to the title game with Derrick Rose.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VwZVC20eEis?fs=1]

Gus Johnson Is The Embodiment Of March

9. Better talent is not always a good thing. If a team is up 5 or 6 points with a minute left, that game is as good as over in the NBA. They will close them out, hit all their free throws, and it’s done. Get on the plane. Next game. In the madness it happens, and happen often. There’s always a shot.

With talent spread out it’s just harder to put your boot on the throat of the other team. Someone could choke their free throws or turn the ball over to let them back in it. You get more close games and furious come backs. Every year so many massively epic games are won on buzzer beater shots and plays.In the NBA it’s just not the same. In the last 10 seconds of a march game it’s not uncommon for the lead to change 3 times and then the game be won at the buzzer with everyone freaking out like maniacs. It’s hard for me to even picture NBA guys jumping up and down like that.

10. Simply, the Madness. When you watch March, you don’t watch one game at a time. It’s about the format. In the first weekend there are 40 or 50 games played alone. They’re all overlapping each other. When that’s combined with point 9 above following all the drama just gets insane.

You start jumping back and foruth between 4 games at once that all have leads of a basket or two at most cuz there are 8 games going on. There’s no point in watching something that’s not close. Then the finishes start to roll in and you watch one finish after another. It’s nothing in March to watch 4 games finish in the span of 20 or 30 minutes, see 2 buzzer beaters, one buzzer beater attempt that fails, and another game go to OT in the final seconds by some underdog team no one ever gave a chance. After the first good game you say “wow, how can that be topped?” and then you see it get topped 4 or 5 times later that night. It’s incredible.

Bonus point 11. Gambling. Filling out a bracket and rooting for all the teams you picked to upset the teams they shouldn’t be beating just takes everything to another level. When the above happens and a team hits crazy shots to win you money and more importantly the traction to talk smack to your friend you just took money from, life is good.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9vmoQ5WABU?fs=1]

Stephen Curry Was INCREDIBLE In College

Bonus point 12. I started watching March seriously in the 90′s after years of thinking it sucked and was over rated. I got into the fab five thing and loved Grant Hill at Duke but I didn’t ‘really’ start watching the whole thing till later. The first year I filled out a bracket was when Wade went deep in the toruny at Marquette and blew my mind with his play.

Every year for I dunno, 6 years?, I said “there’s no way it can be better then last year” and every year I was convinced that’s exactly what happened. The only time I didn’t feel that way was the year after George Mason made the final four from the 13 seed. Understandable because that was one of the best runs in hoops history. Then the year after that Curry took over and it started again. There’s just few things I’ve ever been into that delivers more then the Madness.

And that’s what March is really all about. It’s what the Louvre is to art, or what Jazz is to music. Just basketball in it’s purest form. There is really no way to be a real basketball fan and not love March. It’s what separates fans of basketball stars from fans of the game. If you are a real fan and disagree, don’t worry, you’ll eventually fall in love with it like the rest of us.

Lets sum this all up in a single sentence. March: the only way sex could be better then March Madness is if you were having sex while watching March Madness. QED.

Post Script: Just one more note. March Madness has Gus Johnson. I would watch him calling paint dry. “And here we go, rise and fire from the sun. Latex is drying hardening it’s colourful compound.” Gus once made me look up excitedly by calling the ball boys wiping sweat off the floor. I laughed at myself then. Just watch Gus Johnson describe the first game he called in the tourny.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9vmoQ5WABU?fs=1]

His First Game Ever, And More Amazing Gus Johnson

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Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged bracket, carnival of the nba, college, duke, George Mason, Gerry McNamara, Gus Johnson, march madness, Melo, NCAA, Tony Skinn, tournament, UNC | Leave a comment

Announcing The Unrealized Potential All Stars!

Posted on February 25, 2011 by The Pest

You can check the NCAA Basketball Odds and compare them to the John Hollinger Draft Projectionsall you want; predicting a career is nearly impossible. For the same reasons, slamming a career that didn’t work out as planned is not fair. We have just heard so much talk about the present all stars, but what about the players who should have been all stars, but never fully cashed in on their potential?They are the butts of jokes, get bad press or get no press at all. But is it all their fauls? FCP presents a loose list of the Unrealized Potential All Stars. Is someone missing? Feel free to comment below.Starters:

Point Guard: Steve Francis

He had so much potential he was nick named ‘Stevie Franchise’ before he had actually proven himself. He peaked in his 3′rd year with a 21/7/6 season using his incredible athletic ability to get to the rim to dominate the entire league from the point. Unfortunately his durability was an issue and his stats would gradually decline and as pointed out in this space before, he lacked the pure skills to overcome it. Instead of carrying teams to the playoffs and the HOF, Steve became one of the worst contracts in league history. He was paid 17 million a year to play for dreadful Orlando teams and then sank the second franchise of his career (the first being the Grizzlies when he refused to play there) when he became the proverbial nail in the coffin of the Isiah Thomas era Knicks.

Shooting Guard: Drazen Petrovic

If you haven’t watched the 30 For 30 documentary by Vlade Divac about his relationship with Petrovic, Once Brothers, I highly recommend it. You’ll get to see more of Petrovic’s incredible game that we only truly saw for two seasons with the Nets establishing himself as one of the best guards in the NBA. The following summer Petrovic was killed instantly in a car crash with his girlfriend as he was sleeping and didn’t buckle his seat belt ending his life and NBA career. So hey kids, buckle up! The point is, not many basketball players are good enough to have a statue in their image made of them and Petrovic was.

Small Forward: Grant Hill

Unrealized All Star MVP

In 1995 GQ ran a special issue called “The Future Of Sports.” On the cover they asked “Can Grant Hill save sports?” They counted off the 50 most important people in sports and Hill was #1. When I saw this issue on news stands did I laugh? No, it made sense. Grant Hill was bigger then basketball, he was a mega-star in the making who transcended all pro sports. And he was only a rookie. I’m not sure anyone has had more potential then Hill and he looked poised to reach it putting up triple doubles like he was ordering them in a coffee shop.

Then the injuries started. And Hill started trying to play through him to prove his toughness to Detroit’s fans. Then Hill didn’t play another injury free legitimate season till he was 35 years old in Phoenix. And just like that, the man who was the Future Of Sports had an insignificant career.

Power Forward: Len Bias

Len Bias never played in the NBA, but he for sure made it. That’s because the night after he was selected by the Boston Celtics in the draft he overdosed on cocaine and never got to step on a court. Highlights, games, player/coach/scout testimonials all point to Len Bias being a bona fide superstar. He was going to a team with enormous talent that was ageing and would be a perfect fit to slowly take over a la Tim Duncan. It’s hard to know how good he would have been, but it’s easy to tell he fulfilled less potential then nearly any player in history.

Center: Greg Oden

Snap A Pic!

Oden was a monster in college. Perhaps never better exemplified then his NCAA Final game when his control of the paint kept his Ohio Buckeyes in a game they had no business in. Oden blocked or altered nearly every single shot within 10 feet. With his dominant hand broken. And in the NBA? Oden made more news when his gargantuan penis was leaked online then with his play. Injuries have kept him down and prevented him from playing anything more then bench minutes. Tragic for the man who was drafted before Kevin Durant.

Bench

Point Guard: Jay Williams

Again Kids, Safety First!

I first read about Jay Williams in an issue of Slam magazine when he was a child of 13 or 14 years old. They said watch out for this kid, so I did. And they were right. ACC Rookie Of The Year. National Freshmen Of The Year. He won the Naismith and Wooden awards as the NCAA player of the year after leading Duke to the championship game and scoring over 25 PPG. He was selected 2′nd overall after only Yao Ming.

After his rookie season Williams crashed his motorcycle into a street light and nearly lost his life. He was not wearing a helmet, or to drive a motorcycle in the state and was violating his contract by riding one. The Bulls played nice and bought him out for 3 million (when they could have given nothing, per a voided contract). Williams signed years later with the Nets, but wasa waived. Then signed with a d-league team, and again was waived.

Shooting Guard: Adam Morrison

FCP Has A Soft Spot
For Facial Hair

Like the real all star team, we are playing with positions to fit Chris Webber on. And Morrison could play the 2.

“The Stache” built up his potential in college where he starred at Gonzaga where he averaged 28 PPG on 50% shooting and 42% from the arc. If history is kind it will view his famous crying after his team was beaten out of the NCAA bracket as ‘passionate’ instead of weak and remember how he was one of the best scorers in college history. If history is kind, it also won’t bring up his NBA career since it’s invariably going to be misjudged. Perhaps the Larry Bird comparisons were exaggerated, but you don’t get that kind of hype without having some serious game.

Morrison did not have a spectacular rookie season averaging 12 PPG, shooting under 40%. To be fair though, when he did start the majority of his games he scored over 15 PPG. What’s unfair to Morrison is that while most rookies have a few years to get used to elite level basketball, Morrison blew out his knee after a merely average rookie campaign to become a severe liability. His career ended with his rookie contract. Had he not hurt his knee Morrison could have in the very least been a solid shooting role player, or, had a multiple all star ceiling.

Small Forward: Chris Webber

My Favouritism Chris Webber,
Was This Chris Webber

When I read writers slam Chris Webber’s career, they bring up things like inability to take big shots. I’ve never understood. Chris Webber had more then just taking big shots. ‘Big Shots’ are a simple method writers use to spin engaging stories and compare everyone to Michael Jordan. Webber had serious game and it was more then just taking shots. How many countless games were won on Big Passes? Lots. But that’s still not the issue with Webber’s career.

Webber, in my mind, won one championship. I will never give credit to the Lakers for their 2003 ring because winning from cheating is not winning but stealing. Just like in court, whether you steal someone’s property or are in possession of it, you’re still guilty of a crime. That’s still not the issue.

Webber came into the NBA by storm. He was a threat to be a top 10 player of all time. People often forget, but injuries hampered him from his second year in the league. His athleticism never fully returned or was capitalized on from his rookie days on the Warriors. He missed nearly half his second season and nearly his entire third season in the NBA due to a serious knee injury. He missed more time in 2002 due to his knee. Every time Webber lost a little of what he had. But in 2002 the camel’s back finally broke and Webber lost any semblance of his promising athletic ability.

He still managed a few productive seasons on skill/talent alone after this, but eventually his career ended with an embarrassing stint playing 14 MPG where it all started on the Golden State Warriors under his first coach, Don Nelson.

Power Forward: Pervis Ellison

Never Nervous Pervis was drafted first in a 1989 draft featuring Danny Ferry, Sean Elliot, Glen Rice, Nick Anderson, Mookie Blaylock, Tim Hardaway, Dana Barros, Shawn Kemp, BJ Armstrong, Vlade Divac, Sherman Douglas and Clifford Robinson after leading Louisville to a National Championship in his second year.

When he got to the NBA, injuries already started to take their hold on him as he missed the majority of his rookie season leading Danny Ainge to dub him “Out Of Service Pervis.” Once healthy and given minutes on the Bullets Ellison put up 20 PPG, 11 RPG, 2.7 BPG and shot 53% from the field to win the league’s Most Improved Player award playing at a level merely expected in his rookie season. Unfortunately this was his peak and the knee injuries kept piling up till he finished his career playing 4 MPG on a 44 win Settle Supersonics team

Center: Ralph Sampson

FEAR ME, WHITE BOYS!

Sampson, if anything, was a player with limitless potential. When he and Dream put it all together, they formed a nearly unstoppable offensive and defensive force. Sampson averaged 20 PPG, 10 RPG 2 BPG and a steal over his first three Rockets seasons. When they met the defending champion Lakers in the West finals the Rockets lost the first game, and then destroyed the Lakers in 4 straight games. The series was never really close. They lost the finals in 6 games to the arguable GOAT team Celtics after which their coach, K.C. Jones, called them “The New Monsters On The Block.”

The next season, Sampson suffered back and knee injuries that led to him being traded and was never the same. There is also an alleged ‘nose injuries’ that Sampson and his team-mates suffered. It is rumoured that from time to time, Sampson would trip in his home and mysteriously find his nostrils stuffed full of cocaine.

Utility 1: Orlando Woolridge

Woolridge’s Talent Has Fallen
Through The Cracks
of NBA History

How many times have you heard someone make this ‘obvious’ statement.

Michael Jordan only had crap players around him for the first 7 years. Of course he didn’t win with a garbage supporting cast!

I’ve heard it many times and it may just become the subject of another article. Why it’s coming up now though is because it perfectly reflects how under-rated Orlando Woolridge has become. Woolridge never made an all star team but peaked averaging 23 PPG on 55% shooting playing ‘with’ Michael Jordan. He put up similar numbers the next year when Jordan was injured for most of the entire season and again on the Nets as their best player.

Then Orlando’s nostrils, implanted with some kind of cocaine magnets, led to a league suspension 15 games into his next season. Cocaine like many hard drugs is actually quite clean. Within a day or two, all traces of it leaves your system. Therefore, it can only be imagined how often Orlando was likely snorting to get caught by a drug test.

He then played a role on the Lakers winning attempting and filing to win a ring. Then gave it one last shot to become a true star on the Nuggets. He almost did it too scoring 25.5 PPG with 7 RPG under “The System”, Paul Westhead’s offensive genius run and gun offence. For much of the season Woolridge actually led the league in scoring but it fell apart when he sustained an eye injury and missed almost half the games. He would never play over 30 MPG again and was out of the league 3 years later.

Utility 2: Sam Bowie

Retired == Promise

The historical laughing stock of the NBA draft. He’s brought up as many times as the career of Michael Jordan is brought up. People call him the biggest draft mistake in history. I named my fantasy league “Sam Bowie Is The Greatest!” to commemorate the event. But was it fair?

Not really. Sam Bowie had promise. Lots of it. In his second year he averaged 17 PPG, 9 RPG and 3 blocks. A defensive center who’s also an efficient scorer == wins in the NBA. Especially ‘that’ NBA of the 80′s. People expected Bowie to partner with Clyde Drexler for one of the most potent inside outside teams in the NBA. Instead Bowie was never able to take off. He peaked out with a 17 PPG 10 RPG 2 BPG season but spent an entire career re-injuring and rehabbing.

There you have it. The Unrealized Potential All Stars! Additions? Hate? Love? Post it in the comments below.

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Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Adam Morrison, Chris Webber, Drazen Petrovic, Grant Hill, Greg Oden, Jay Williams, Len Bias, Michael Jordan, Orlando Woolridge, Pervis Ellison, potenital, Ralph Sampson, Sam Bowie, Steve Francis | 2 Comments

Rosey Picture? Is Derrick Rose For MVP Hype?

Posted on February 22, 2011 by The Pest

First Things First, No Matter
What My Conclusion Is, Derrick
Rose Is A Freakishly Talented Player

I hate to burst the bubble here, but things have changed regarding how people talk about the Bulls of late. For years it was about their dire need of inside scoring. They were a .500 team.

When Boozer was out to start the season, they had a 9-6 record and very much resembled the .500 team they’ve been for two years. Since they’ve gone 25-9 behind a much more balanced inside/outside attack. Now the story I’m hearing has changed as well. Now that they are beating good teams it’s all due to Derrick Rose, the league MVP?

They’ve played Portland, Utah, Dallas Twice, MIA, Bos twice , LAL, OKC, ORL twice. That’s 10 solid games with Boozer. The difference from pre-Boozer is instead of losing those games they’ve won most of them going 7-3 vs just good teams. That’s before you consider that one each of the Bos/Orl games was Boozer’s first and second game of the year. And I’m not even counting teams like Memphis and Phoenix who they beat with winning records.

Speaking of Portland, if we want to award the MVP to a player who’s stepped up to lead his team through injuries, then Lamarcus Aldridge is undoubtedly this year’s MVP. It’s not even close. But Bulls fans are making that argument for Rose, who’s obviously not been hampered by injuries on the Bulls like LA on Portland. Here are a few more arguments:

Rose carried the team when Boozer was hurt at the beginning of the year when they had a crazy tough schedule.

This winning did not start till Carlos Boozer came in to provide the inside scoring they’ve so famously lacked. I love Noah. Not a Boozer fan. I have to admit though, he’s an upgrade. Especially offensively. The hype is ceaseless though… lets check it out:

Boozer had his first game on Dec. 1. At that point the Bulls were 9-6. They had 3 wins vs winning teams. Was this because of Rose?

1. Dallas: They held the Mavs to 83 points. Rose had 22 points on 32% shooting and 6 dimes. Noah had a 10/17 and Taj Gibson a 17/18. This was a defence oriented win led by their big men.

2. Denver: Rose had 18/6 on 33% shooting. But again, Noah had a 19 board double double, they held them to 92 points, and won by a basket.

3. Portland: Rose had a good game, 16/13, but this was Deng’s night. When he shot 74% and scored 40 points leading them to the win.

Keep In Mind, I Have Never Liked This Douche

Before Boozer they were beating bad teams and getting beaten by good teams. Upgrade Noah to a 20/10 guy who demands a double team and the result is “it’s Rose keeping his team in it” rather then oh yea, that huge signing we made this summer that filled a hole that kept us playing .500 ball for 3 straight years… yea, that worked.

Talking up Rose for work vs the Cavs and Kings of the league is weak for an MVP argument. Even if Boozer has not been playing out of his mind, it balances the team offensively. Shooters stretch the floor for bigs, and vice versa, bigs collapse defences to create open shots/lanes for shooters/slashers. Even when you look at their quality wins after Boozer started playing, they aren’t getting them because of Rose. They’re winning because of their D.

Vs. LA, 84. OKC, 90. BOS, 79. Mavs 77l. ORL, 90. Lets look into that argument next.

Derick Rose has led the Bulls to wins over every elite team in the league!

Sounds fantastic. But you’ve got to look closer.

Reason 1 The Bulls Are Winning

At the All Star break a reasonable elite cut off looks to be 35 wins. That makes the elite NBA teams Miami, Orlando, Seattle, San Antonio, LA, Dallas and Boston. This makes sense on paper and practice. So lets look at the production.

Vs elite teams Rose shoots a pretty poor 42% to score 26 ppg. His dimes dip considerably to just over 7. And did they beat elite teams? They’ve also lost to almost all of them as well. In those losses and wins Rose doesn’t change and shoots 42%. In Losses he averages 24 points. In wins about 27 points. So an extra basket and a half. Is this leading the Bulls in these wins over great teams? The difference of a basket and a half?

No. Defence is. A non-factor in Rose’s game. Vs Elite teams the Bulls are holding opponents to an average of 94 PPG. In their losses, 104.66 points. In their wins they’re crushing the competition with 87.25 points allowed. A difference of 20 PPG? Yes, that’s a leading factor to wins.

Reason #2 (and 1) The Bulls Are Winning

In wins Rose only has a single game with more then 10 assists vs Orlando. He had 22/10, but they held the Magic to 78 points. Consider Rose’s 11 point, 23% shooting win over the Thunder. Rose is their best player, but they are winning with defence if he plays well or not. In fact, the Bulls have a 9-1 record in Rose’s 10 worst shooting games, all of them under 35%.

That’s smoke and mirrors though. Are these ‘elite’ wins? They look like it in the schedule. But a cursory look at those 8 wins shows it’s obvious the Bulls didn’t actually best elite teams. I guess they were wearing elite jerseys, sure, but they came down to their level of the Bulls competition and not the reverse. Observe:

Their lone win vs Boston came when KG AND Perkins were out.

Their lone win over the Heat came when Lebron was out. They still only beat them by 3 points.

They beat Dallas once with no Butler and a hobbled Dirk who rushed back and was visibly limping on the court. It wasn’t Rose’s 22/6 that led them in their other Dallas win but 10/17 from Noah and a 17/18 from Taj Gibson as previously discussed.

Their lone win vs the Thunder came on an 11 point, 23% shooting stinker from Rose.

Their win over the Lakers was decent but a total team effort. LA had just lost 4 straight to the Jazz, Pacers, Griz and Rockets the week before… I’m not sure what that means but I watched that game, and LA was looking anything but elite while being crushed by the Bulls D.

The win over the Magic Rose had 12 dimes, but 22 points on 28% shooting… good but not amazing.

Scratch That, The #1 Reason The Bulls
Are Winning Is ‘Suited Up’ In This Pic All Right

And then the Spurs win, when Rose positively dominated. Don’t want to take anything away from a gifted player after all whom I’m huge on. Just low on hype.

Conclusion: Rose has ‘led’ them to wins over an elite team for sure, once, on a career night. Pretending this is regular is disingenuous. If he keeps up last night for the rest of the season, by all means, give that kid the MVP. As yet though he has not earned it vs the best teams in the NBA. And since we brought up D so much, how did I get through this whole paragraph without giving massive credit to Tom Thibiedeau, who’s truly at the heart of the Bulls league and ‘team leading’ D?

Derick Rose is playing at a higher level then anyone in the league

Rose just had his first 40 point game of his career. In comparison, LeBron James has 3 40 point games this season and one 50 point game. As the PG Rose’s best passing game is 14, once. Same as Lebron from the 3. Rose has 15 double digit dime games but he’s also the point guard. Lebron has 10. Rose has 17 games shooting over 50%. Bron has 24.

How Bulls Fans Percieved The Rose/James
Argument Before The Decision

With no dominant big men the Heat are the league’s 4′th best defensive team. Lebron’s offensive impact is also worth noting as the Heat are the 4′th best offensive team He’s at the center of everything they run on both ends. This is compared to Rose, running the 19′th ‘best’ offence in the league… just ahead of the Pistons and Kings depending on the day.

It’s not his play giving them a shot like an MVP’s play should. It’s his inefficiency at the point that’s actually stagnating their offence. Forcing low percentage attempts for himself instead of creating easy baskets for his team mates is reflected in his low FG% and assists .

Lebron vs Rose comes down to facts. It’s factual that Lebron is out producing Derrick Rose. It’s factual that Lebron is lifting the Heat on both ends of the court to an elite level. It’s factual that the Bulls are elite at the one thing Rose does not do well, and terrible at the one thing he does do well. Conclusion: Lebron is drastically more valuable to his team.

Lets attempt a Dwight comparison. He seems to get overlooked yearly. With terrible defensive players Orlando is the third best defensive team in the league. Rose’s elite offensive numbers. 13 30 + games. 1 40+ game. 15 10 dimes games. 17 games shooting over 50%.

Dwight. A ridiculous 5 20+ rebound games. 22 15 board games. 47 10 board games. 4 5 block games. 1 40 point game. 10 30 point games.47 games shooting over 50%.

I know, it’s not fair to compare a center and a PG. But to me, it’s aparant that Dwight’s impact on D, as well as O, is just above Rose’s. He has only shot under 50% in 8 games out of 55. The Magic field crappy defensive players who Howard lifts to elite defensive status.

Rose vs Howard. Fact:The Bulls are a crappy offensive team with, uh… well… pretty freaking elite offensive players. (more on this in a bit). Fact: Rose is not lifting the team offensively because even with his high PPG, they are still nothing but below average offensively. Fact: Dwight Howard makes the Magic good at everything because he’s actually the league’s MVP. Okay, not a fact, but pretty much.

The Bulls would be nothing, a lottery team, without Derick Rose

Oh, but Rose is scoring lots of points! Sure, but since he’s only affecting offence how far would they fall? The better question: how far could they fall? Past the hapless Pistons, who rank two spots down from the Bulls? Detroit is conducting a t-mac experiment at point. Their best scoring big man is Chris Wilcox. Their best rebounder is Greg Monroe. Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon, their ‘big signings’ are not even starting. Rip Hamilton is not even playing. Why? Because the team has no clue how to score or what it’s doing. Noah, Boozer and Deng are arguably the best front line in basketball. Taj Gibson is a ‘great’ backup who can take over games and is coming into his own. Kyle Korver last season… wait a minute now. This gets it’s own paragraph.

Kyle Korver just posted the best 3 point percentage in league history last season. 53.6%.

Without Rose this team would still be amazing on D, and could not possibly be that much worse on O. Why? Because Rose doesn’t really make them much better on Offense. The reality that scoring loads of points on 44% shooting is not efficient play.

With an average point guard running the offence the Bulls are still better then the Pistons and Kings. They don’t have Luol Dengs ripping off 40 points in huge games with elite D. I see no one capable of multiple 15+ board games like both Noah, Boozer AND Gibson have had this season. I don’t see any history leading shooters coming off the bench. Noah, their offensive liability, still shoots over 50% for 14 PPG. What I do see is a sneaky stacked team that is a lock for the playoffs with their league leading defence whether Rose is there or not.

I must be mistaken though, because this is the response I get from this point:

You must not be watching the Bulls, if you did, it would be obvious Rose is their best player and takes all the big shots

On the contrary, I am watching the Bulls, and apparently people making this argument are only watching Derrick Rose. Rose is their best offensive player. I could even see how Rose is their best overall player. He’s totally the future of the franchise. But he’s not the MVP now. Not because of this point.

How do I know? Because of Shawn Marion.

How does Marion prove anything about Derrick Rose? Simple. Marion is a perfect foil to Rose to test the logic of the above statement for validity. In 2007 the Suns were the best team in basketball. There was no doubt this was because they were the most potent offensive team in the league. They had a brilliant play maker with a brilliant offensive coach in a brilliant offensive system.

There was no doubt that Marion was their most versatile and best defensive player. There was no doubt that he was their go to guy on any and all big stops in games. Except the Suns stank on defence. (except not as bad as the Bulls on offence. The Suns were above average ranked 13′th on D while the Bulls are ranked 19′th on O). Marion came 4′th in DPOY voting that year. I’m not sure, but I don’t think anyone else on that team has ever received even a single vote for DPOY.

I’m sure you’ve figured out why this argument stinks. Offence is flashy and sexy but it’s not worth more then defence. Being the best at something a team that wins is terrible at does not make you an MVP just because the things you’re good at make weekly top 10′s. They get you all star selections, and that’s very fair, but the MVP is about winning: sports centre is not.

The defensive drop off between Marion and the rest of the Suns is much more drastic then offensive equivalent between Rose and the Bulls. This is self-evident. Shawn Marion on the Suns is vice versa mirror of Rose on the Bulls. Except Marion was way better on O (3′rd on the team) then Rose is on D (5′th or 6′th). Also self-evident: there is no effing way Shawn Marion was the 2007 Suns, or, league MVP.

The only way this argument validly suggests Rose is the league MVP is if you:

1. Think Marion was the 2007 league, or hell, just team MVP on the Suns.

2. Think that offence is more ‘valuable’ then defence.

In both scenarios you’ve got a completely impossible task on your hands because both assertions 1 and 2 are categorically ridiculous. Yes, Rose takes the big shots, but he also misses small shots, which lead to situations when he has to take big shots, which leads to a bunch of losses because Derrick Rose as stated, hits fewer shots then he misses.

In fact, Derrick Rose hits even less of his ‘big shots’. Per 82games.com, Rose is only shooting 39.6% in clutch situations this season. The Bulls are still winning. Is it because Rose is lifting them? No, it’s because he’s being carried by team MVP, Tom Thibideau and his supporting cast of kick ass defensive players. Both Rose and Marion made their teams a lot better but neither of them ‘made’ their teams what they were. That is precisely what MVP’s do. QED.

But.. But… But he scores all their points!

Ah, yes, so when trying to cope with the logic of the Shawn Marion foil, some fans have responded by rejecting that logic, and then merely repeating that anyone who watched the games would see Rose is their best scorer. Even though it’s not addressed, lets make one more comparison.

Who’s the MVP of the showtime Lakers? Is it James Worthy? Jamal Wilkes? Byron Scott? Kareem? Maybe Kareem has a case very early in the era, but the MVP is without question Magic Johnson.

Except every single one of those other players above outscored him in various seasons. Magic’s natural place in the points column was third on the team. Everyone but Jamal Wilkes led the team in scoring for an entire season. Even Byron Scott. Other players would tend to take the big shots and scored the most points but Magic was still the MVP.

Why? The Lakers won with offence. They were built around Magic. They won and lost with the ebb and flow of his game. He was most valuable to the team for this reason. If your team wins regardless of how good a game you have, you just can’t be that valuable because obviously, something or someone on your team is good enough to generate wins on it’s/their own.

The Laker’s leading scorers were Scott and Big Game James but they were where they were because they had Magic. Scoring all the points and taking the big shots is a faulty reason to make someone the MVP. The Bulls leading scorer and most exciting player is Derrick Rose, but they are where they are because they have a Magic Defence.

But… But… But… Rose Leads The League In Points/Assists/Rebounds Combined! He Has To Be MVP!

I love how each season a new ‘stat’ floats out of the ether that people use to justify their bias. I’ve never heard people mention this before. As if a single point is equal to an assist. A solid dime scores 2 or 3 points and a rebound gets an entire possession yet it’s the same as making a free throw?

I’ve even heard the homer Bulls announcers make this claim during broadcasts. The sad part? This is total bullshit. It’s a lie. Just like the ‘when Rose shoots more, we win more’ lie being pushed by the Rose4MVP agenda, it’s factually incorrect. Observe:

Lebron: 26.2 + 7.1 + 7.6=40.9
Kevin Love: 20.8+15.8+2.5=39.1
Dwight: 23 + 13.9 + 1.3= 38.2
Durant: 28.2+7.3+2.8=38.3
Amare: 26.4+8.3+2.6=37.3

Who’s at the bottom of this league leading list?

Rose: 24.5+8.1+4.3=36.9

It’s not even remotely close. I just took a few people I suspected would be higher then him too. There could be more.

Rose has become the best point guard in the league and is out playing his peers

It’s not fair to compare Rose’s stats to bigs. Things like rebounds and blocks are so much in their favor. Another hype sound byte I’ve heard is that Rose is now the best point in the game. If he’s the MVP he should be out playing other candidates at his position, right? Howard compared to other 5′s screams ‘best’ and ‘elite’. So how’s he stack up vs the 1′s he’s supposedly passed. First up, my boy, Steve Nash.

Nash vs Rose.

15 dime games.
16 – 0.

10 dime games
34 – 15

Rose does score a little more obviously:

30 point games
0 – 13

20 point games

18 – 39

But not nearly as efficiently

50% shooting games
32-17

What’s happening? Rose is making bad decisions. Setting up his own shots rather then team mates. It’s padding his PPG but killing his team’s offence. This is why elite points own him on FG% and dimes while his positive offensive impact is over rated. He looks GREATon sports center. The reality is he’s missing way more shots then he’s taking, not passing enough.

The Best Of The Best For FCP. Nuff Said.

Team is a lot though. Lets compare the help between Nash/Rose here too.

Inside scoring
Carlos Boozer vs Hakim Warrick or Robin Lopez or Jared Dudley or Marcin Gortat. I love Gortat. Big time. But Boozer, who I really don’t like much, is just wildly the better inside scorer.

Outside shooting
Channing Frye vs Kyle Korver. Hmm… Frye’s best season from the arc is 43% which is the only season, ever, he’s shot over 40%. Korver’s best season is a full 10% better when he LED HISTORY in 3 point percentage and he’s always been one of the elite shooters in the game.

Not to mention in this match up, Rose is about 1000 times faster then Nash. So if Rose is playing at an MVP level, which is above the entire league, and Rose is an offensive player, why is it that Nash’s offensive impact destroys his? Nash’s team is elite on offense while Rose has better offensive players.

CP3 vs Rose

Chris Paul’s team, well, they suck. I’m not sure how to compare. There is nothing elite about David West. Some nice post moves? But he’s soft. And he’s not 20/10. Okafor is nice defensively for sure. But the Bulls players own the crappy Hornets. Still…

15 dime games.
4 – 0.

10 dime games
29 – 15

Rose does score a little more obviously:

30 point games
0 – 13

20 point games

17 – 39

But not nearly as efficiently

50% shooting games
28-17

Wait a minute, did Nash just own Chris Paul as well? A bit but at least Paul’s team stinks so you can’t make the same argument against him. It’s still intriguing that with about a quarter the athletic ability, Nash is still playing the point at a higher level then all these people who have supposedly passed him.

Lets just do one more head to head to head comparison in case we got confused with who’s elite in Rose’s peer group.

Nash/CP3/Rose

Games shooting under 40%

8/16/15

Games with less then 10 dimes
17/29/37

And note, I didn’t bring up 3 point shooting cuz it’s not really fair and to be fair, you can still be a fantastic PG/player/MVP without shooting 3′s.

So Why Has Derrick Rose Been Hyped?

There are 4 main reasons.

1. Rose is awesome, and scores lots of points. High PPG in the NBA is sexy and easy for writers to fake like they know what they’re talking about.

2. Rose has a plethora of awesome sports centre highlights.

3. The Bulls have a very good record.

4. Most importantly, Rose plays for a large market team. Amare plays in NYC and got hype for the same reason early in the year when they beat a string of hapless teams for a week or two. (thanks to my reader John for pointing this out, I’d forgotten to mention it, along with Rose’s obvious east coast bias).

And keep in mind, I really do love watching Rose. Awesome player. I’m totally looking forward to watching him for years to come. But something sucks about Derrick Rose. It’s not him but his growing legions of irrational fans who seem to be beating rational ones into submission.

People are trying to make him the MVP instead of letting him earn it. Dwight Howard’s rise is not sexy now. We already know he’s great and expect it. Lebron’s brilliance has won two MVP’s and people want to hate him. Everyone knows CP3 already got robbed but he’s so 2008. Not that Rose can’t still push his team higher and win it fair and square. He can. He just has not separated himself from the pack as of yet though.

He’s been on a team that appears to have been saddled by injuries all season who in reality got better then they’ve ever been when Noah got hurt because Boozer stepped in to replace him.

They’ve been lucky because about half the time they’ve faced the best teams they’ve gotten gimmes instead of the usual ass kicking like when they faced those same teams full strength. Don’t get me wrong, Rose has made a sizeable jump in his career this season. It’s great to watch. But he’s not playing at an MVP level… yet.

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Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Chicago Bulls, chris paul, CP3, D12, defense, Derrick Rose, Dwayne Wade, Dwight Howard, heat, Joakim Noah, LBJ, Lebron James, Luol Deng, MVP, NBA, production, Steve Nash, Tom Thibideau | 4 Comments

Pennyroyal “T”

Posted on December 23, 2010 by The Pest

By Jeremy Graham

If Sheed Was Anything, He Was Great For
Basketball: Stern’s New Rules Would Have
Robbed Us Of The Entire Sheed Experience

“Don’t go away mad, just go away!” Oh wait, don’t go away either. You just might get T’d up for it. I know, act like a robot. That seems to be the only way to not get a technical foul in today’s NBA. But what happens if the referee thinks that acting like a robot is disrespectful to the game? Well then you are screwed. Don’t you think that suppressing your emotions and acting like a robot is disrespecting the game? I think it is. These men have played basketball their entire lives. They have given their sweat, blood and tears for it and now have a corporate “fat cat” telling them they cant even express themselves in a time of frustration. How wack is that?

Human emotion is the driving force in human beings. It’s simple: they have led to bloody confrontations that have taken many lives. Now in “the heat of the battle” you want these men to suppress human emotion with only a split second to think. It can’t be done. I am not talking about allowing the players to complain and complain like they have previously but a player should be able to show frustration, anger and a little bit of passion without facing a technical foul and a fine.

How Exactly Is Hiring Strippers To Get Down To
Their Underwear “Respecting The Game” David?
Or Is It Really Just A Respect For The Coffers Rule?

Just the other night Nate Robinson got a tech for merely hanging his head… the worst I have ever seen. Worst tech call I should say. It is up there with Duncan in 07 getting ejected for laughing on the bench. Lets break it down: Nate had just checked into the game and on the first play he fouled a cold jump shooter in Eddie House sending him to the line. A terrible way to entrance and Nate knew it. He hung his head in “self” disappointment he was immediately called for a tech.

He didn’t approach the referee. He didn’t say anything. Just completely and utterly disappointed in himself because he let his team down. For that he receives a tech plus fine and gives the other team an additional point with the ball. This could have proven costly to the Celtics had the Heat not stunk it up. Not only was the call terrible, the referees swallowed their whistles in the same game when Lebron was much more vocal. Reggie and the booth did not seem too happy with the call and were themselves vocal on the broadcast.

Do I think players should be given free reign on complaining and crying to refs? Absolutely not! This league is full of primma donnas. The new rule could be great for the league if used properly. The respect for the game rule should only come into play when a player vocally challenges the ref about the call in question. I am all for open dialogue between zebras and players about calls as long as the talk is civil. If a player comes whining, actually showing disrespect, rather then asking why, then go ahead and T up the whiney baby.

Another Way To Respect The
Game: Steal The Team Of A
Dedicated Fan Base And Give
It To A Friend For His City

There is no disrespect in asking a ref why he called what he did, and there is no disrespect in being frustrated with a call or upset with yourself. I know the refs like to take over games and become the focal point but even they can’t be happy with handing out T’s like they were prophylactics in the armed services circa 1944.

The only person disrespecting the game right now is David Stern. Instituting these, for lack of a better term, wussy rules is ruining the game that everyone knew and
loved. Calling techs, slowing the game down, having players shoot even more free throws is no way to create more fans. It could even turn the die hard fans away from the game. There is a reason that people hate the end of close basketball games. No one wants to watch free throw after free throw, it can be a grind.

Animated players are rather entertaining however and anything is better than free throws. Could you imagine if these rules were around with Dennis Rodman? We would have probably missed the career of the greatest rebounder ever because he would be getting ejected from every game due to his antics. If David Stern truly loves this league and the game of basketball he will do away with this rule ASAP and instead of trying to squash players pointing out how much refs stink, maybe make some rules that actually improve their performance instead of merely hide reactions to it.

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Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged carnival of the nba, David Stern, Dennis Rodman, nate robinson, NBA, nba dancers, nirvana, respect for the game, Sheed, Sonics | 1 Comment

Talent = Skill + Ability: The Battle Of The Steves (and Tyreke Evans)

Posted on November 26, 2010 by The Pest

Evans And Francis’ Careers Are Mirror Images Thus Far

By: The Pest

Who’s more talented… Tyreke Evans or Stephen Curry?

If you go by the evaluation of the NBA in general last year, it’s Evans in a landslide which garnered him ROY honors. But is it the case?

It depends on perspective. If you consider ‘right now’ Evans was able to overwhelm Curry on the basis of his athletic ability, raw stats and highlight plays. If it’s career based, and you picture yourself looking back at the year 2010 when they’re getting ready for the Hall Of Fame, your perspective changes. Those who ranked on ability are most likely to be laughing at themselves, and those ranking on skill are most likely going to be saying ‘told ya so’.

Allow me to demonstrate. The year is 2002, lets look back and compare two points, Steve Francis and Steve Nash.

Francis was electric. He dunked on people’s heads. His nickname was “Franchise”. He made highlight reels nightly. Nash was probably the 2′nd or 3′rd (and some may say 4th) best player on a pretty good Mavs team that won 57 games. Here are their 02 stats:

Francis: 21.6 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 6.4 APG, 1.2 SPG, 42%, 35% from 3, 77% from the line, 3.9 TO, 3.0 PF

Nash: 17.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 7.7 APG, .6 SPG, 48%, 45% from 3, 89% from the line, 2.8 TOs, 2.0 PF

Francis Liked Playing With Yao So Much,
He Decided To End His Career Playing In China
For A Team Called The Ducks

If you were to say that Nash was the better player, was going to have a better career and much more a lock for the HOF, people would have ridiculed you. If you pointed out that Nash had an array of honed skills that were far superior to Francis, that he was more effective while scoring only marginally fewer points and more assists people would say you were just making excuses and that Nash, while good, was just an inferior player, he didn’t have the same talent. (It should be noted that Nash’s defence was rarely brought up until he was the best player on a truly GOAT level offensive team).

Looking back now though it’s difficult to tell what was thicker, the irony or the heads of those laughing. Francis retired at the age of 30 and was not seriously considered an elite player after the age of 27. Almost 10 career year after this Nash is putting up a career in scoring, just came off a career season leading the 4′th best offense of all time (only surpassed by Magic’s showtime Lakers, Bird’s Celtic’s and MJ’s Bulls) with no HOF players on his team… well, except him, because he’s cemented himself as a first ballot HOF player.

Where was this evident in 2002 though? You can see the difference in their ‘skill stats’. Nash only played 34.6 MPG to Francis’ 41.1 meaning that /36 his per game totals were even closer/better.

Nash shot much better from the field (6%), 3 (10%) and the line (12%) indicating he had wildly better shot mechanics which was also evident by watching the many bricks Francis put up when he wasn’t close to the cup.

As a ball handler/passer Nash also commits far fewer TO’s (over 1 less) a game which is highlighted even more by the fact that as a pass first point guard who got more dimes, Nash made many more risky plays a game dishing to his teammates, and when he was not passing most likely had the ball in his hands running a play.

Francis got more steals but this is more then partly due to his willingness to gamble for them and Nash’s religious devotion to never gambling. This discipline is reflected in Nash’s much foul rate too as he’s not trying to make up for plays he’s counted himself out of.

The result is obvious. People under rate skills and over rate natural ability. Francis is putting his feet up on the couch to watch 36 year old Nash is putting up career highs… and he has been for 6 years.

Evans Will Have A Blue Career Without A Jumper

Lets look again at the modern day Francis/Nash of Evans/Curry. Notice the parallels? Evans made sports center like crazy last year and was electric as one of the most athletic guards in the league. But Curry has game that will be effective with or without his athleticism. Tangible skills that are going to carry him through a Hall Of Fame. Evans is a low skill one dimensional player who gets 73% of his field goals directly at the rim, not to mention is only effective scoring with one hand. (note the graphic on the side).

Curry is a high skilled multi-talented player who finishes at the rim with nearly identical effectiveness yet only relies on it for 28% of his field goals. The other 72% come from all over the court including 3 pointers which I don’t have to tell you, count for more.

I’ll Let Curry’s ‘Rookie’ Shot Chart Have The Last Word

Who’s more talented? If you’re a student of the game and think about players in terms of careers instead of sports center highlights, I think it’s almost obvious Curry wins. Evans might be able to make it on ability for now but it won’t last if he doesn’t learn how to play more like Curry. Evans can get there, but without remarkably improving his game he will be ‘disenFranchised’ out of the league in 10 years because he frankly lacks talent. Talent he needs to be a truly great player.

Curry does not need to change his game in the slightest. He’s already there. It’s so common to misconstrue that athleticism supersedes skill in the talent equation but it’s quite the opposite. Curry stands to be a better player at 33 then he is now. Improving at a normal gradual pace his talent will be swishing 3′s right into the Hall Of Fame.

But you could see that even before Curry played a minute in the NBA. Observe.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=soiqIxhien8?fs=1]

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_FVY--UVcY?fs=1]

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Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged athletic, Davidson, Franchise, shot chart, skills, Stephen Curry, Steve Francis, Steve Nash, Suns, talent, Tyreke Evans, Warriors, Yao Ming | 3 Comments

The Semi-Complete List Of Shaq Getting Dunked On

Posted on November 23, 2010 by The Pest

Shaqtus Made A Living Doing This

By: The Pest

Lets be honest about Shaquille O’Neal for a moment. He is easily one of the most dominant, powerful and ridiculous forces the NBA, or any sport, has ever seen. I personally think Dream is the superior center, but Shaq is not a poor choice if you’re talking about his pure and absolute peak.

Speaking to hard core Shaq fans though will oft yield this argument for Shaq as a defender.

Have you ever seen shaq get dunked on or someone take him one on one and punish him like he did to everyone else? Shaq has never been dunked on.

Maybe not often, but I’ve heard it enough times from enough people to write an article about it. I think it’s crazy. It’s the NBA. Everyone dunks. Everyone gets dunked on. Even Shaq. So sure to generate mass unpopularity, here is the complete list of you tube dunks over Diesel. Admittedly, Shaq didn’t get dunked on much, and since he played nearly his entire career before You Tube, even fewer exist in that medium.

Now, for this no one dunks on Shaq claim. I don’t know where his fans get this. Here’s a short collection, and these are only the ones that make it to you tube. PS: If anyone has more clips please send them along and we will gladly include them with credit.

Bynum dunks on Shaq’s pride:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nuzx7-PjwEo?fs=1]

Funderburke/Robinson:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNksHprkCeM?fs=1]

Derrick Coleman Just Posterizes Him:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1myF3dqnWo?fs=1]

Rueben Patterson Does The Same:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cTO2YWonbI?fs=1]

Elton Brand:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCfIhh1GKwo?fs=1]

Zo:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kB_lzcS53QA?fs=1]

Arvydas Sabonis:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTqLJOVv-iQ?fs=1]

Howard dunks on Shaq’s floppy pride (“Like an elephant gun took him down”):

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGdKTiC51aw?fs=1]

Jason Terry:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKHgblE6d1o?fs=1]

Jordan:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfQBsDHhw2U?fs=1]

Webber:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-q_sWdxBK8?fs=1]

Vlade Divac: Now after that sweet pass you might say “yea, Divac was afraid of Shaq”, But no, watch THIS clip, when Divac retaliates after a blatant non-call when Shaq was getting bailed out by officials (edit: My mistake here, Vlade just goes by Shaq on the dunk over Walker. Got them mixed up cuz of the title of the vid and Walker’s 52 being similar to Shaq’s 32 from the rest of his career. But he was 34 in LA of course. But I’ll leave this dunk in just for it’s pure sweetness. )

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4Nqz2NRIWo?fs=1]

You know, after watching that Divac dunk, I really don’t think Shaq’s fans can ever say no one has ever dunked on him again. Vlade, sometimes the poster boy for soft centers, took it right at him and stuffed it down his throat. That dunk is ridiculous! (edit: still ridiculous, but it’s downgraded from a facial stuff on Shaq to just a ‘weak dunk on Shaq’)

In conclusion, I really don’t mean to be down on Shaq. He’s obviously one of the most dominant players in history. But statements like “Shaq has never been dunekd on” make him sound like he’s just beyond reproach. Remember that Shaq has never led the league in blocked shots or rebounding, Hakeem handed him his ass in the finals, and that yes, Shaq has been dunked on.

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Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Andrew Bynum, Chris Webber, David Robinson, Derrick Coleman, Dwight Howard, Elton Brand, Jason Terry, Jordan, LA Lakers, magic, NBA, Rueben Patterson, Sabonis, Shaq, Shaq dunked on, Vlade Divac | 3 Comments

The Meaning Of Value: Russell Westbrook Vs. Kevin Durant

Posted on November 19, 2010 by The Pest

Durant Scores More On Average, But There Is
Nothing Average About Russell Westbrook

By: Jeremy Graham

Can you be the league MVP if you are not even the MVP of your own team? That’s the question facing Kevin Durant, the chic pick at the beginning of the year to bringing home the hardware. Kobe’s getting older, Lebron’s taking his talents to South Beach, and Chris Paul’s on a “lottery team.” It’s KD team, and his time to win 10 straight MVPs.

With the playoff run and the international grind Durant is starting slow. I still don’t know if he would be the most valuable player to the Sonics, yes I am calling them the Sonics. (ED: FCP says “Damn Straight!” ) Right now, and maybe in the foreseeable future, Russell Westbrook is unquestionably the best, and most important player on his team.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0F3dknkmLg?fs=1]

This Play Defines The Sonics Success Against LA Last Year, Not Durant’s

Double take expected; I almost can’t even believe what I am writing. How can I say that a combo guard who wasn’t supposed to even be a PG can be better than Kevin Durant? Simple! In the time they have played together Westbrook has progressed much more than Durant. Westbrook was never intended to be the full time point guard yet he wanted it so bad he told the franchise “I’m your guy” and took the bull by the horns. Westbrook has progressed so far that he is now arguably a top 5 PG in the league.

I know, top 5 is alright but you have to be top 3 to be elite. After Chris Paul and Deron Williams you can play musical chairs with Nash, Rondo, Rose and Westbrook so today’s “arguably top 5″ is really yesterday’s elite. Durant may be a top two or three player at SF, depending on how you rate Carmelo, but SF does not have the depth of the PG position in the NBA. There are four different categories to rate players on, scoring, rebounding, passing and defense. Right now I think that Westbrook is outshining Durant in all four.

Scoring

We Feel You Seattle

This is like the Kobe vs Lebron debate for who is a better scorer. Talent or Production, what to choose? Durant is, of course, the more talented scorer from anywhere on the court. He resembles Vince Carter with the way he can stroke the 35 foot three when he wants to. Westbrook is a little more modest and is relegated to inside 20 feet. Despite this Durant€ is less efficient. He scores more than Westbrook, which looks great, till you dig a little deeper.

Durant is currently shooting 42% from the field and only 31% from the the arc. For a recently appointed “best offensive player in the game,” those numbers are lacking. Westbrook isn’t lighting it up either, shooting only 3% better at 45% but when you shoot as much as both players do it adds up. By getting his buckets closer to the basket Westbrook takes higher percentage shots for better efficiency. Some say Durant gets to the line and shoots so well the easy points compensate his poor shooting nights. Good point, except Westbrook is getting to the line just a touch less and is shooting just a tad lower. For now Westbrook is the best scorer on the Sonics. Will this last all year? Perhaps not, but it’s the case so far in 2010 and could continue.

Rebounding

Even Blake Griffin Can’t
Keep A Good Dunk Down

It also looks like Durant is the better rebounder on the surface. He does average more per game. But he plays a position where rebounding is part of the job, whereas at PG rebounds are a bonus. Westbrook doesn’t think along those lines. He is one of the best rebounding guards in the league.

Not just from the point but of all guards. Durant pulls down 6.6 RPG and Westbrook pulls down 5.5 out of a non-rebounding position. You have to look at the offensive glass as well. Westbrook averages almost 2 offensive rebounds a game, Durant doesn’t even average 1. Durant is phenomenal, but that reeks of low effort. A PG should not be cleaning the offensive glass better than your SF. It’s not how basketball works. Is it a paradigm shift in the league towards a new uber athletic PG? Perhaps… Some day Durant is going to be pulling down 10 rebounds a game, he may even hit the offensive glass. Right now though, Westbrook has him beat by a country mile.

Passing

It’s Okay Ramon Sessions,
No One Else Saw It Coming Either

It goes without saying that a team’s PG the better passer when compared to a SF. For the sake of this I will focus ball control. For a jump shooter that puts the ball on the floor intermittently Durant frankly turns the ball over far too often. His TOs are as high as Westbrook without running the offense. Westbrook performs the main ball handling duties putting him in position to turn it over much more often.

Advanced stats appear to disprove this. Durant does have a higher usage rate and a lower turnover percentage. Does that mean that he holds onto the ball better? Nope, it sure doesn’t. Durant has a higher usage rate because he puts up more shots, not because he has the ball in his hands more. More shots should equal fewer turnovers. Next you might say, “Well Durant plays more minutes, of course his turnovers are higher.” Good point! Until you see they both average 3.5 TO per 36 minutes. In time Durant will protect the ball and drop more dimes. Presently, Westbrook is his superior.

Defence

PG’s Get Higher Then Their
Centers For Blocks Now???

It does win championships as they say. Durant has turned himself into a very decent defender after a mostly lost rookie year. Westbrook has been a very good from day one. I am not saying Westbrook is better because of history, I am saying he is better… because he is.

Durant’s length/smarts put him in position to steal the ball 1.5 times, and block about a shot, per game. Not only that but he plays solid man and team D at a more important defensive position. Westbrook may play a less important defensive role than Durant but he plays his role better. With the influx of excellent to elite PGs it’s becoming more important to have a good defender at the point.

Just ask the Heat. Westbrook is able to defend elite guards without much help and gets at least 2 take aways per game and tips many passes that don’t make box scores. Durant may have a slight advantage in blocks, but steals nearly always result in a change of possession. Defense is hard to judge, especially statistically and when comparing different positions, but you have to give the edge to Westbrook. All without mentioning that Westbrook can guard both guard positions very well.

Come MVP voting Durant may very well pull ahead of Westbrook and be the best player for the Sonics. His numbers very well could sky rocket. He has all the talent to do so. A few questions should still arise at that time. Will Westbrook have the better numbers? Will it matter if he does, or will Durant win the MVP because he was supposed to be? And can you be the MVP if someone on your own team is outperforming you?

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Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged assists, better, defence, Kevin Durant, LA Lakers, MVP, NBA, Russell Westbrook, scoring, series, Sonics, stats, team, Thunder | 2 Comments

Have you ever seen shaq get dunked on or someone take him one on one and punish him like he did to everyone else? Shaq has never been dunked on.

Now, for this no one dunks on Shaq claim. I don’t know where his fans get this. Here’s a short collection, and these are only the ones that make it to you tube. PS: If anyone has more clips please send them along and we will gladly include them with credit.

Bynum dunks on Shaq’s pride:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nuzx7-PjwEo?fs=1]

Funderburke/Robinson:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNksHprkCeM?fs=1]

Derrick Coleman Just Posterizes Him:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1myF3dqnWo?fs=1]

Rueben Patterson Does The Same:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cTO2YWonbI?fs=1]

Elton Brand:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCfIhh1GKwo?fs=1]

Zo:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kB_lzcS53QA?fs=1]

Arvydas Sabonis:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTqLJOVv-iQ?fs=1]

Howard dunks on Shaq’s floppy pride (“Like an elephant gun took him down”):

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGdKTiC51aw?fs=1]

Jason Terry:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKHgblE6d1o?fs=1]

Jordan:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfQBsDHhw2U?fs=1]

Webber:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-q_sWdxBK8?fs=1]

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4Nqz2NRIWo?fs=1]

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