The Pest

First Round West

1 Spurs VS. 8 Jazz – Spurs In 6

Duncan Rubs Manu's Bald Sport For Good Luck

Spurs have too many weapons and while Big Al has had a nice season at the 5 he by no means is going to dominate his match up. Duncan has quietly had another season putting up just about the exact same numbers /36 minutes he has his whole career… except for lower TO’s and fouls.

2 Thunder VS 7 Mavs OKC in 7

This will either go very short or be ground out over 6 or 7 games. I really like the Thunder in this match up but I can see the Mavs putting up a very strong fight in one of the premiere first round match ups. Don’t let the Mavs coy record fool you. Early Dirk was out of shape. Older teams are going to be able to play harder when they know they have a few days between teams. Expect to see Kidd return to his regular post prime form. I’m picking this going the distance but won’t be surprised by a sweep.

3 Lakers VS 6 Nuggets – Lakers In 5

Can McGee add some sugar to the kool-aid Denver fans are trying to force down? If he does he’ll play himself into a phat contract he will never deserve. If he doesn’t they’ll lose this series. I’m banking on the latter. Ty Lawsom might make 5 games look silly, but LA is going to prevail. Too. Much. Size.

4 Grizzlies VS 5 Clippers – Clippers In 6

Knowing Blake Makes This Excites Me About This Series

Another series that could go long or short. Expect CP3 to come out of the gate on a mission. Meanwhile, I think the Griz might have identity problems as they have played very, very well with Randolph coming off the bench. I think the Clippers take this though behind Blake Griffin owning the boards/paint and CP3 picking apart the Memphis D.

First Round East

1 Bulls VS 8 76er

The Pest – Bulls In 5

76ers had a nice run with legitimacy this year but they just can’t hang with the Bulls. Their early season win over Chicago is a distant memory as they lack the scoring to compete against Thibideau’s Defence.

2 Heat vs 7 Knicks – Heat In 6

Unfortunately For Everyone, This Falls Into The "Never" Category.

Maybe the most interested first round series on deck. The first real match up between Melo and Bron. Can Melo win two games by himself in this series? Yes. Can someone like JR Smith/Fields/Shump/Novak have a special game and win another one? Yes. The reality is that healthy the Knicks are title contenders, even if their horses are a little dark. It’s really going to come down to what Amare Stoudemire can give them. If they matched up with the Bulls in the first round I was going to pick them and I still do. But status quo tells me this is a dumb idea so strongly I’ll meekly say long series going to Miami, however, there won’t be an ounce of surprise in me if they take them out in the first round after not beating the Heat once this year.

3 Pacers vs 6 Magic – Pacers In 5

When you’ve got Dwight in a series, you can never really bet agasint them. But they don’t have Dwight and it’s probably the only reason Stan Van Gundy is still working. Orlando can probably win one game but since you beat this team by out-working them, and only out-working them. It’s just not gonna happen. Pacers in 5.

4 Celtics vs 5 Hawks – Celtics In 6

I like the Hawks but with no Al Horford I’m not sure they have the horses to compete with Boston. I still expect them to win a couple games, so I’m picking Atlanta in 6, but I expect them to run out of gas trying to score on the best defence in the league. Will Jerry Stackhouse and T-Mac have one more memorable moment in the playoffs? If their coach is smart enough to trust them in the right circumstance, I expect it.

Second Round:

West:

1 Spurs VS 6 Clippers – Clippers In 6

I really expect CP3 and Blake to have a huge series. While Duncan is still legit he’s never been able to contain hyper athletic forwards (young Amare) and is going to have difficulty keeping Blake Griffin off the glass and out of the paint. Their hopes are foul trouble for Jordan and home court, but I’m thinking Clippers win this in 6.

2 Thunder VS 3 Lakers – Thunder In 5

For The First Time In Andrew Bynum's Career, This Has Not Happened, Look Out West!

The Thunder will need Perkins more then ever. Barring a Westbrook decision fueled collapse I don’t think LAL can hang with OKC. That, and they’ve got their own collapse machine in Kobe Bryant nullifying those odds. Combined with LA’s traditional problem of stopping quick athletic point guards I think OKC takes this in 5 Laker identity searching games. However if Kobe fully hands the reins to Pau/Bynum anything can happen.

East

1 Bulls VS 4 Celtics – Bulls In 6

The Bulls take this series, however it’s really going to come down to home court and the match up at point guard. If Rondo can be spectacular like he has been so many times it can flip the whole series. The Celtics win games with defence that forces their opponents to play their kind of game allowing them to win with their very weak offence. Except that’s the Bulls are happy to play that way but have a very efficient offence. I’m feeling Bulls in 6 on Boston’s floor, but 5 if Rose can give them something special.

2 Heat VS Pacers – Heat In 6

This really could turn out to be the best series of the playoffs. I smell one thing: defensive battle. Which is okay for the Heat since they almost seem to look for this kind of series. It’s true team concept vs superstars. Indiana has improved dramatically on offence this season and Miami will have it’s hands full with the under rated front court of Hibbert and West. I still pick Miami in 6 hard fought games though.

Conference Finals

West

2 Thunder VS 5 Clippers – Thunder In 6

My pre-season, knee jerk to the pre-season, pick for the finals was the Clippers. I still think no one can match up with them however that was also when they had Billups in the line up as a glue guy. I think the Clips are underrated going into the playoffs but the Thunder have too much talent. Barring a Westbrook implosion the Thunder will probably get to the finals in 5-6 games, and epically game 7 if CP3 can be incredibly special.

2 Heat VS 1 Bulls – Heat In 6

Many Bulls Fans Will Never Admit How Infatuated They Were With Lebron Joining Rose Pre-Decision... I Don't Think They'll Be So Happy To See Him In The United Center This Year

With the improved team playing Derrick Rose, I really do think Chicago is the team to beat in the East. If he can give them that expect this to be a very long series that will come down to which team can impose it’s will on the defensive end. On paper I want to pick the Bulls, but my heart says to give more respect to how tough the Heat came out in their last regular season game which was really just the beginning of the ECF’s. Combined with Rose’s chance of being hurt and the way guys like Anthony don’t seem to get outplayed so much I’m picking Heat. But maybe it’s because I want to.

 Downtown Charlie Brown

San Antonio Over Utah 4-2
Memphis over LA Clippers 4-2
LA Lakers over Denver 4-3
OKC Thunder over Dallas 4-1

Chicago over Philadelphia 4-3
Atlanta over Boston 4-3
Indiana Sweeps Orlando 4-0
Miami Sweeps New York 4-0

2nd Round
San Antonio over Memphis 4-3
LA Lakers over OKC Thunder 4-3
Atlanta over Chicago 4-3
Miami over Indiana 4-2

3rd Round
San Antonio over LA Lakers 4-2
Miami over Atlanta 4-1

FINALS – MIAMI OVER SAN ANTONIO 4-3

The Elusive Heisenberg

http://youtu.be/Jt8rDpkF94U

Hoopstradamus, The Elusive Heisenberg, Downtown Charlie Brown, Sportschump, Fishman, and lastly your’s truely, The Pest. Be sure to check out all their sites if you want the best basketball insights out there.

1. What is Linsanity’s true celiing? Does he make you reconsider how the post-season will play out?

The Elusive Heisenberg

His true ceiling is pretty much impossible to predict. While I think the comparisons to Nash are mildly ridiculous at this point, there’s no question the kid can play. I think his ceiling is top 10 pg, which is still quite an achievement when you consider the number of quality points in the league.

As for the postseason, the Knicks remain what they always were. A dangerous first round opponent that is capable of beating anyone other than the Bulls and Heat, but who won’t make it past the second round as a result.

Hoopstradamus

I’ll be honest here. I don’t think Jeremy Lin will ever be deserving of an all-star spot. Nor do I think he’s the solution to poverty, selfishness and war. However, I do think he’ll be one of the better point guards in the league for a long time. As much as people want to believe that the scouting report is out on him, it isn’t. This past Sunday I watched Shawn Marion, one of the best defenders of the last decade, constantly allow Jeremy Lin to drive right and get off that mid-range jumper with ease. I’m giving him the ceiling of a smarter Brandon Jennings.

As far as the post-season goes, of course. The Knicks didn’t even look like a playoff team before Linsanity. Time will tell if the Knicks can gel and become a true contender but for now, they’re either one of the toughest first round outs the East has seen for a while or a good second round match up. At the end of the day though, the Heat and Bulls are the best of the bunch.

Sportschump

So far, the Linvasion has been entertaining, although I’m pretty sure even him mom is tired of seeing his picture plastered all over the papers. We’ve been waiting for quite a while for the Knickerbockers to become legit contenders. After crashing and burning in last year’s playoffs, we thought Carmelo and company would come out with a little more fire this season. They didn’t. Ironically, it took an undrafted, Asian-American point guard from the Ivy League to give them the kick in the ass they needed. If stranger things have happened in the NBA, I’m not sure what they are. I recently hosted a poll on my website asking readers how far Jeremy Lin could take the Knicks. Most answered one series playoff win at best. I’m inclined to agree with them. After Chicago and Miami, the East is wide open. So as long as the Knicks can grab a 3-4-5-6 seed, they should be fine. Anything lower and the Bulls and Heat will each their lunch.

Downtown Charlie Brown

I think a big thing helping Lin so far this year is that teams do not practice and their gameplanning is not anywhere close to what it would be in a normal season. The turn overs i feel are very telling and if the Knicks had any kind of point guard rotation Lin would not have such a long leash. When this all settles down and people quit comparing him to Nash he will probably fall into a Barea type role/ fringe starter.

Fishman

Lin! I have always been a believer in the guy. As far as his potential, I think he has the capability to be a perennial all-star. He’s a good finisher, has good vision, a quick first step, a decent shot, and a knack for finding space and using screens effectively. He’s even got the tougher parts of the game down already – shot selection and passing is already top-notch. Aside from his lateral movement on defense, all he needs to improve is his consistency and turnover rate; over a few years, this will be no problem. Despite the greatness of Lin and New York’s newly acquired depth, though, I do not anticipate New York messing up the plans of Chicago or Miami.

The Pest

As a player, the absolute max ceiling? All time point guard. He’s showing the same flashes I saw out of young Steve Nash and as so many points have shown it takes experience and luck. Lin has had them in reverse it seems and everything working out perfectly is very rare. A realistic ceiling is elite point guard which he has arguabley started making a case for already.

As an icon however, Lin truly does not have a ceiling. If they call it Linsanity in North America, I’m not sure there’s a menaingfull enough word in Chinese to replace it in Taiwan. The only thing I can compare it to is the death of Michael Jackson (or two pandas named Taun Taun and Yuan Yuan, but that’s another story). When he broke Linsanity was on every channel, all day, every day. News shows reported on Lin, and only Lin, for days. When I walked into my language center last week a group of women who never cared or played sports were gathered around a computer watching the ESPN play by play, cheering every time Lin’s name came up on the ticket. Lin committed a foul and they cheered. It didn’t matter. Even if it’s just Taiwan, he’s an icon.

2. We’ve seen him play well with Amare… how will Melo and JR Smith affect the team?

The Elusive Heisenberg

JR i don’t think is an issue at all. The guy is a sparkplug, and shoots when he gets the ball. If anything he will raise Lin’s assists as a shooter, but he won’t be taking the ball out of his hands.

Melo is a different story. I don’t think there’s any question he makes them better. I don’t think there’s a team in the league that wouldn’t improve by adding Melo. The question is how much better can he make them. Melo can be ball dominant, but we saw in his years playing with Iverson that he doesn’t necessarily need to. Melo is actually one of the best in the league at making a move quickly after catching the ball, so long as he is given free rein to score without having to worry about creating much for others. I think that will be the case, and once he and Lin develop some chemistry I think it will benefit the team noticeably. No question that it will hurt Lin’s numbers though.

Hoopstradamus

Well, with a fourth quarter line up of Lin – Smith – Melo – Amare – Chandler you’ve got two guys that are alpha’s, one guy that wishes he was an alpha, and another guy who doesn’t yet know he’s an alpha. Four-fifth’s of that line up wants the ball in their hands. The other fifth is the only guy that’s really committed to defense. (The jury is still out on Lin) That generally spells trouble. However, if these guys can come together and make it work, they could be the most offensively explosive line-up that the league has seen for years. I don’t feel like there’s a lot of middle-ground here. This next two years essentially make or break Melo’s legacy, and this team is either going to turn in to a terrible experiment that makes you shake your head or must-watch television that still makes you shake your head… in awe.

Sportschump

Pre-Lin, the Knicks clearly lacked any sort of leadership. ‘Melo didn’t provide it. Neither did Amare or Coach D’Antoni. Lin’s style of play is so involving that he may eventually emerge as the leader of that team, as long as there’s no Durant-Westbrook type of conflict or resentment. They should all co-exist peacefully, as long as they’re all getting their shots and the W’s keep piling up. If they don’t, I can easily see fingers being pointed. I definitely like the addition of JR Smith. He’s a guy that you really don’t have to run plays for and can just fit into a line-up, as witnessed by them winning their first game with him without having practiced with the team. We talked all season long about how the Knicks needed guard play. Well, now they have two, and that’s a hell of a lot better than none.

Downtown Charlie Brown

Even if Lin was on this team i am not a fan of a team with Melo, Amare and JR Smith. These are all players who shoot first, ask questions, and play defense, later. I don’t think any point would be able to make that team work.

Fishman

Melo is the league’s best scorer. Melo is not the league’s best team player. D’Antoni’s offense is predicated on point guard production and fast pace, and Melo’s tendencies take a little bit away from both of these. Fortunately, though, Melo may be in the midst of changing his tendencies. Seemingly taking recent criticism to heart, against Atlanta, he was keen on playing within the offense (even buckling down defensively) and was clearly looking for a new balance with scoring and playmaking. The Knicks have a very versatile, potent team when Melo is in the right mind; he is not the best player for the Knicks, but with making the right changes, it can work. As far as JR Smith’s signing, he doesn’t help them improve much more than their depth. I believe that what the Knicks could use at this point is a defensive-minded team player (neither Melo nor Smith have proven to fit this role), as they already have enough guys to put up sufficient points. The very thought of an Iggy-Melo trade tingles my senses.

The Pest

Melo will make them better. The heat Melo has received has been unwarranted. It’s not on him: his team had no point guard (on the floor) trying to run D’Antoni’s PG oriented system. If I you about playing Melo as a point forward and win you’d laugh. So why is he a ball stopping cancer when it’s the idea that didn’t work? Melo played great with Gerry McNamara (NCAA Title), AI (Melo Career high and AI career high efficiency), Chauncy Billups (within 2 games of the finals) and Ty Lawson (second best offence in the league). That’s as varied a list of PG’s you can find. Melo was right, “he can play with anyone”. Instead of forcing offence for TO’s Lin gets a legit go to scorer who can shoot, create or finish with anyone. Melo will open lanes for Lin when bigs are forced to guard him on the perimeter. In case anyone forgot, Melo is the best scorer in the league, and an absolute match up nightmare. It’s always good to have that guy on your team.

3. Who were the biggest all star snubs, if any? Who wins the “Gattling Award” for player who least deserves to make the AG?

The Elusive Heisenberg

Either Pau or Paul Millsap. Both guys were having much better seasons than Dirk at the time the rosters were chosen. On a similar note, based solely on performance this year, there’s no question that Dirk was the least deserving all star. But since we can just give him the spot as the reigning FMVP, I’ll say Joe Johnson. He isn’t even the best guy on his own team, and there is no way he is better than Rondo. Now I know Rondo has since replaced him on the squad, but at the time of the voting he was probably the least deserving.

Hoopstradamus

I’ll be straightforward about this. Carmelo Anthony did not deserve to an all-star over Josh Smith. Smoove has been taking less three’s, taking it to the hole, playing insane defense, rebounding and most important of all, he’s been helping his team WIN (or Lin, whatever you want to call it now). Melo on the other hand, has been shooting the ball like it’s nobody’s business, and playing as abysmal defense as ever. When he was healthy, the Knicks looked like a loterry team. However, he was voted in and there isn’t much that can be done about it.

While I’d love to make a case for Rudy Gay or Al Jefferson in the West, and as much as I’d love to take Westbrook off the roster, I wouldn’t do it. Russ has really picked up his game in the past month, and his defense/scoring has been vital to Oklahoma’s success this year. He’s making a difference for his team, and it doesn’t really matter if I’m not a fan of the way he goes about it.

Oh, and the Gattling Award goes to none other than Carmelo Anthony.

Sportschump

Whether it’s the NBA or MLB, I’m not a big believer in All-Star snubs. The fans get to vote, so technically, there are no real losers. Those voted into the game are the ones fans want to see. That being said, Carmelo Anthony probably shouldn’t have been voted an Eastern starter. He’s averaging near a career-low in scoring, field goal percentage and has missed ten games due to injury. But would I replace him with Luol Deng, Andre Iguodala, Chris Bosh or Paul Pierce? I’m not so sure. Same thing in the West. You could make the argument that Kevin Love (25ppg, 15 rpg) has better numbers than Blake Griffin (22ppg, 11 rpg). He does. But who would you rather watch play?

Downtown Charlie Brown

My snubs and Gatlings go hand in hand. Milsap should be there instead of dirk and Josh smith should be there over Joe Johnson or Carmelo. All you have to do is look at the raw numbers to see that those 2 players are having better seasons than the three mentioned. Oh and just noticed that Rondo never made it ( is a replacement now) and that is just slilly.

Fishman

I am positive that Paul Millsap deserves a spot on the West roster; both him and James Harden deserve a spot over Dirk Nowitzki (has anyone checked Harden’s TS% lately?). Both Aldridge and Love deserve Griffin’s starting spot more than he does (I happen to think Griffin is generally overrated). Josh Smith may be more worthy of a spot than Melo as well. All in all, though, I am very pleased with the results of this year’s selections.

The Pest

All Stars were mostly obvious. Slight snubs Josh Smith (down year though) and Ryan Anderson (not a true star, is he?) are overshadowed to me by the Rajon Rondo snub. He didn’t get picked, sure, but they picked Paul Pierce, and Rondo is clearly the best player on their team. Seagway to my Gattling award winner. Pierce has put up 18/5/5 and shot a poor 41%. Rondo is putting up 15/10/5 on 48% shooting, is the heart of their offence and a far better defensive contributor. Pierce is the Celtics 3′rd or 4′th best player depending on how you view Allen’s start to this season (blistering). People here picking Melo totally confuse me. When Melo was picked the Knicks and Celtics had almost the same records. Except Melo was putting up 24/6/4 on almost the same percentages as Pierce without the benefit of one of the best points in the league creating his easy baskets, not 4′th best player on his team.

4. Would you rather just watch the players have an arm wrestleing tournament at mid-court or this year’s dunk contest? Do you think anyone from this field will be able to impress?

The Elusive Heisenberg

I hate the dunk contest. The best dunkers are never the ones who win. Derozan had the best dunks last year and didn’t make the finals. I love Blake and hate Mcgee, but Mcgee had a more impressive contest by far, and Griffin’s car dunk was one of the most unintentionally funny things I’ve ever seen. If it were up to me they would pay TFB to come put on a dunk comp every year. That would be entertaining. As it stands, I’ll catch the highlights but I will not watch.
Arm wrestling would be interesting, but really I would only care about who beat who, watching it would be kind of dull. That’s why I say they play volleyball. It just makes sense. It’s a court sport, it’s based highly on athleticism, and it would be hilarious. Other than the injury risks there’s no downside at all.

Hoopstradamus

Everything in last year’s dunk contest was perfect, aside from the actual voting. There was not a single dunk that disappointed me, aside from the last one. I was going to defend this contest, but then I took a look at this year’s contestants: Derrick Williams, Paul George, Chase Budinger, Jeremy Evans. In other words, what the #*%&? As a fan of the dunk contest, it makes me cringe and I can only hope that I’m wrong when I say that this contest will resemble the contest of 2010. If anyone has a chance to stand out thought, it’s probably Paul George.

Instead of the arm wrestling match though, here’s what I propose. We take 20 of the NBA’s greatest retired players, and have a pick-up game. I don’t care how much it takes to pay these guys to play, just make it happen. There won’t be a person on the planet that would miss out on watching Jordan take it to the rack against Kareem, no matter how old these guys are. We’ll even bring back Steve Javie and Joe Tait, for old time sake.

Sportschump

I’m one of the biggest all-star dunk homers you’ll ever meet. Sure, the contest has lost some of its luster over the years. I blame LeBron James. Winning the dunk contest was a rite of passage for NBA superstars. Dr. J did it, Michael did it, so did Dominique, Vince Carter and Kobe. Those before LeBron

passed the torch, he passed on the option. His participation would have breathed new life into a contest that so desperately needed it. Personally, I don’t like that there are only four participants. It messes with the format. The contest was always better with eight players leaping out of the gym. Four doesn’t give us any drama. Re: this year’s contestants, I have confidence Jeremy Evans, Derrick Williams, Paul George and Chase Budinger will be able to provide us with a few ooh’s and aah’s, even though nobody’s ever heard of them. I also expect George to emerge victorious, but we all know the three-point contest is where it’s at for excitement these days.

Downtown Charlie Brown

I don’t see this contest being a bigger let down than Blake Griffin last year to be honest. At least we wont have to go through ridiculously stupid hype followed by nothing special. I couldn’t even name who is in the contest this year and i am fine with that. It should be somewhat entertaining, as long as the players stick to something they can do instead of getting 17 tries at it.

Fishman

I really think they need to introduce a small one-on-one tournament. Wade versus Kobe, Melo versus Bron, even CP3 versus Dwight … could anything be more entertaining? At least play “bump” or “tips”, considering that it wouldn’t hurt any of the players’ feelings. That is to say, I have very limited interest in this year’s dunk competition. Perhaps it will be nice to see Budinger’s 38.5 inch vertical on full display, but the combination of an

influx in YouTube dunking fanatics and the results from the last few years just leads me to believe it won’t be very exciting.

The Pest

I like the dunk contest, but can’t deny an arm wrestleing contest is probably more fun. What the NBA should add HORSE to the ASG. Not that bastardized Chuck/Kenny/EJ circle jerk joke they put up previously. Get rid of the refs. Let players dunk. For christ’s sake it’s the NBA. Stop the replays and interviewing players. Mic them up and let the talk playful trash to entertain us. Last year’s overblown anti-climatic Griffin coronation was a let down.He jumped over the hood of a car, not a car. People screaming “Bring On The Paegentry!” in to any ASG microphones should be shot on sight.

5. What will the tightest end of year awards be? Who’s a lock, and who’s going to be in a footrace?

The Elusive Heisenberg

At the moment, MIP is the biggest lock. Linsanity could become an average point guard for the rest of the year and he still wins it. MVP is also a lock. Sorry Durant, you’re one of my favourites, but there is no beating Lebron if he keeps playing like this. He’s an elite defender putting up the best PER of all time on the best team in the league. The voting should be unanimous. Eventually someone will challenge Dwight, but for now DPOY is a lock as well. Iguodala is getting some (deserved) love, but this is Dwight’s award to lose. Sixth man belongs to James Harden, I would put the season he’s having against any season since Manu last won it. Harden could have been an all star in my opinion.
So that leaves rookie of the year and coach of the year. ROY is between Irving and Rubio. I have no idea who will win. Coach of the year is always tricky. All I can say is that there will undoubtedly be multiple people in the running.

Hoopstradamus

The NBA’s most important awards, the MVP award and the DPOY award are pretty much locks at this point. Lebron James is having one of the best seasons of his life, staying away from the three point line, playing great defense and dominating like it’s 2009. “With no regard for human life” comes to mind. On the other side of the ball, let’s face it, Dwight Howard had the DPOY locked up before the season even started. And then we’ve got the sixth man of the year award. While there’s always tons of candidates for the award, and while the Nuggets might even have two (Harrington and Miller) I think this award goes to James Harden and it’s not particularly close. We’re talking about a guy who should be an all-star coming off the bench here.

Looking at the others, things start to get tougher. As far as Coach of the Year goes, I’d have to give it to Doug Collins, but you can make a great case for George Karl and Lionel Hollins as well. The Rookie of the Year trophy is a two-man race at this point, and while there’s a lot of basketball to be played, Kyrie Irving is looking like he’s going to edge out Ricky Rubio. This award is far from a lock though.

The toughest match-up, in my opinion, is the Most Improved Player award. I’m not ready to give it to Lin, partially because I don’t know if he actually improved or was finally given a chance, and also because it’s only been nine games. Guys like Greg Monroe, DMC and my favorite young player, Paul George make a strong case for themselves as well.

Sportschump

I don’t think this year’s MVP award is a lock yet by any stretch. I’ve heard a lot of talk about LeBron taking it home lately, but why? He’s not even the best player on his team. That’s right. I said it. Kevin Durant is playing otherworldly, and even though he whines like a little girl, if you take Dwight Howard off the Orlando Magic, you have a ten to twelve-win team. What I’m really interested in seeing, if he keeps this up, is how many votes Jeremy Lin will get. It’s not quite as absurd as you think… or is it? I’m also intrigued by the Rookie of the Year award. Ricky Rubio is playing some outstanding ball but Kyrie Irving has managed to put a smile back on Dan Gilbert’s face. He’s leading his team in scoring AND shooting nearly 50% from the field. Not too bad for a rookie point guard.

Downtown Charlie Brown

I think the DPOY may be a little closer than most people think. The writers may be tired of Howard in general and all this trade stuff that they decide to reward someone else like Iggy this year. I don’t actually see any of the awards as being a runaway except for the most improved which is easily going to be Lin .Even if Lin regresses and finishes the season with stats like 11 and 4 there is no way he wont win that easily.

Ｆｉｓｈｍａｎ

MIP undoubtedly goes to Jeremy Lin. Sixth man of the year is definitely deserved by Harden (has anyone checked his TS% lately?), but Crawford and the Williams – Lou and Mo – will likely attract some attention. MVP is a toss-up between Durant, Lebron, and CP3, as they all have reasons for not winning it: Durant has Westbrook; CP3 doesn’t quite get the attention he deserves; Lebron is disliked and gets too much attention – attention regarding his comments about Cleveland rather than about the fact that he’s having the best statistical season of all-time. Defensive player of the year could actually go to Lebron or even Iggy (it appears as if he’s finally getting his due credit), provided Howard stays quiet and/or has less of a defensive impact if traded to another team. COY is between Collins or Popovich for obvious reasons, and ROY is a virtual tie between Rubio and Irving.

The Pest

My MIP pick, Marcin Gortat, can’t derail Linsanity. DPOY I do believe is is going to Dwight, but Iggy should compete. COY is a footrace between Doug Collins and Frank Vogul for how Indy and Philly made the leap. MVP, is locked up if you’re reasonable. I’ve never seen a more complete basketball player in my life then 2012 Lebron James. Highest PER of all time. All NBA D. His 27/8/7 on 55% and 41% from 3 is one of the best statlines of all time.

Lets take the way back machine to Oscar Robertsons 1962 triple double season. The average pace was 152 possessions a game compared to 91 now. Merely adjusting for pace, not talent, he is putting up 38/11/10 while shooting nearly 10% better. Lastly his all NBA D only commits 1.7 fouls. The eye test shows him jumping over people for ally oops, throwing beautiful half court passes dominating the league in a way we haven’t seen since Tim Duncan used completeness and discipline to do it in 2003. Durant and Paul just can’t compete.

Who's Top Dog?

It’s a theme that started with last year’s playoffs. Westbrook attempted far too many shot attempts in certain games, causing many of them to be closer than they should have been, and in some cases supposedly causing his team to lose.

But how valid is this argument? One would think it’s very valid based on the amount of coverage it has received. But I tend to not trust the media, they write what they think is interesting not necessarily what’s true. So let’s re-examine this whole situation.

Note. I am not going into this with any sort of agenda, and have no idea what to expect.

First look- Shot Attempts

The main complaint in last year’s playoffs was that Westbrook was taking too many shots compared to Durant. Does this hurt the team? Let’s first examine shot attempts and how it relates to the Thunder’s Win/Loss record throughout the regular season. We will later address if the data changed come playoffs.

Note that Field Goal attempts could be used, but this would ignore the shot attempts that aren’t recorded due to fouls occurring on the shot. We want to be able to incorporate free throws. For this reason we will say that

Shot Attempts= FGA + .44*FTA

The reason .44 is used instead of .5 is due to the number of free throws that occur that are not the result of a foul on a shot attempt. .44 has been determined to be an reasonably accurate number for this calculation, and is used in a similar manner in the True Shooting Percentage calculation.

We get the following results for 2010-2011

As you can see, there is almost no difference in the number of shot attempts for either player in their wins or losses.  This seems to go against the media’s agenda that Westbrook shooting more shots leads to Thunder losses.

Second look- True Shooting Percentage

Their shot attempts appear to be the same in wins and losses, so maybe it’s just that Westbrook happens to shoot poorly when they lose which is why we notice it. Fair enough. Let’s take a look. We will use TS% instead of field goal percentage to account for free throws and 3 pointers.

Now we expect both players to shoot better in wins, that’s why they win after all. However Durant shoots 10.2% better in wins, whereas Westbrook only shoots 5.9% better. What this suggests is that the Thunder winning or losing depends far more on whether Durant has a good shooting night than on whether Westbrook has a good shooting night. This is not necessarily a bad thing, but it does imply that we can’t really point to Westbrook under-performing as the reason the Thunder lose.

Third Look- Points Per Game

So we’ve now looked at shot attempts and True Shooting Percentage. Let’s look at the most obvious combination of those. Points.

As with TS%, it makes sense that both players average more points in wins, since star players scoring a lot of points is intuitively a recipe for some level of success. However, as with TS%, Durant has a higher difference in his performance, scoring 17.2% more points in wins as opposed to Westbrook who scores only 14.8% more in wins.

Fourth Look- Usage Rate

It’s not all about whether a player shoots well is it? Things such as turnovers must be taken into account as well. We will now examine the effect of USG% on Win/Loss.

Note: Usage percentage is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor.

Similar to Field Goal Attempts, there are miniscule differences in each players USG% in wins compared to losses. This suggests that the outcome of Thunder games is not necessarily dependant on which of their two stars dominates the ball. This is a noticeable difference. A good part of it can be attributed to his teammates shooting worse in losses, but there is probably something else happening here.

Fifth Look- Assists

One of the other narratives we’ve heard isn’t that Westbrook is necessarily shooting too much, more that he isn’t passing enough. So let’s look at assists per game. I will only look at Westbrook’s data as Durant’s assists totals won’t mean much since his role isn’t really to create for others.

This is a noticeable difference. A good part of it can be attributed to his teammates shooting worse in losses, but there is probably something else happening here.

Sixth Look- Performance in extreme cases

From the data presented so far, it’s clear that on average Westbrook performs almost identically well in wins and losses. The key phrase there is on average. But the issue for some people hasn’t been that on average Westbrook plays poorly, more that in rare cases he has a terribly selfish game. Well to investigate that, let’s take a look at the team’s win loss in some of the Westbrook’s most “extreme” games. We will look at the games in which Westbrook attempts the most shots, has the highest Usg% (combination of shots and turnovers essentially), and has the lowest Assist percentage.

First let’s look at the 5 most extreme cases of each stat, and the win loss record in these situations.

4-1 is an 80% winning percentage, equivalent to roughly 66 wins in an 82 game season. The Thunder won 55 games.

Now let’s look at the 10 most extreme cases of each stat.

Same case as above, these numbers are indicative of a 66 win season.

Finally, let’s look at the 20 most extreme cases.

15-5 is equivalent to 61.5 wins, 14-6 is equivalent to 57, and 11-9 is equivalent to 45 wins.

As we can see, in all but the last case for Assist percentage, the games that suggest Westbrook’s most selfish play actually lead to a higher winning percentage for OKC than they achieved in the actual season.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that selfish play is better. The set of 5 games is a rather small sample, and 10 games isn’t too much better. But the 20 game numbers suggest that even when Westbrook is shooting lots the team does not perform any worse than they would on average.

 So from most statistical points of view, it appears that these so called “alpha dog struggles” had little to no effect on whether the Thunder won or loss games in the 2010-2011 regular season. However, the narrative was more prevalent in the playoffs.

Note: The playoffs are a far smaller sample size than the regular season, and therefore this data might not carry as much weight since one or two anomalies could throw off the whole sample.

With that said, let’s look at the data.

This data looks a little bit more like what we’re used to hearing, which makes sense since the narrative gained steam through the playoffs. In their losses Westbrook attempted (a lot) more shots, had a higher usage percentage (due to the increased shots), while shooting a worse percentage. However despite the worse percentage he scored almost 5 ppg more. The slight drop off in assists can probably be attributed mostly to his teammates shooting a lower percentage in losses and to the tiny sample size (his one 14 assist game in a win accounts for essentially all the difference).Durant on the other hand shot the ball more often and had a higher USG% in wins than losses. This would seem to indicate that Westbrook taking more shots increased the Thunder’s chances of losing.

Costing his team the win? The data disagrees.

However, even putting aside the ridiculously small sample we are using (9 wins, 8 losses), does this mean that Westbrook is costing the team wins? He really doesn’t shoot that much worse in losses, he just shoots more. Yes he turns it over more (4.75 per game as opposed to 4), but Durant has a bigger turnover difference (3.1 to 1.9). Durant’s shooting also seems to play a bigger factor in their losses, as he shoots a noticeable 5.6% worse.

I’m not saying Durant is the reason OKC loses. Even in losses he shoots noticeably better than Westbrook does in wins. What these numbers, particularly the regular season numbers, suggest is that the Thunder win when Durant has a great game and lose when he doesn’t. This is not an insult to Durant, it’s actually more of a compliment, as it hints that OKC isn’t able to win without him playing well. What the regular season numbers do tell us though, is that over a long period, whether Westbrook plays “selfishly” by taking too many shots, it does not affect his team’s chances of winning, though there’s no doubt it can affect it on a game by game basis, as it would with any player. Also, it is important to note that this data assumes that Westbrook’s playstyle is the same throughout all 4 quarters, when everyone knows that the game becomes more star-focused in the 4^th, particularly in close games. While a study involving the 4^th quarter of close games exclusively would be interesting, the sample size would be much smaller and therefore somewhat unreliable, and in the playoffs it would not work at all. Perhaps this could be delved into at a later date, for now I think it’s ok to assume that the difference between the first 3 quarters and the 4^th is not dramatic enough on average to disregard the data that’s been presented.

As for the playoffs, I’m hesitant to draw conclusions based on such a small sample size. While one might interpret the data to mean that in the playoffs a selfish Westbrook equals losses, one could easily point to the regular season data and attribute Westbrook’s overzealousness to playoff jitters as they made their first deep playoff run. If one took this mindset it would be easy to dismiss these concerns of alpha-dog issues in OKC. To try to get some more insight, it would be useful to look at the start to this 2012 season and see if any of these playoff problems persist. However, with the Thunder only having 6 losses in 27 games, we would not be able to draw any conclusions from this sample. I’ll be revisiting this topic prior to the playoffs to see if there is any more evidence to support this idea.

Sorry To Flip The Tables, But As A Game Changer, He Is A Few Inches Of D Short Of A Foot Long When the Washington Wizards decided to

When the Washington Wizards decided to hire Flip Saunders I was a bit shocked. After 15 years of watching this guy coach soft teams and de-harden great teams, I thought the hoops world had seen enough. Not correct, so I wrote an article about the situation. It never got published as the timing never really did feel right and Flip got pushed to the back burner. This one has been gestating for a long time now and  the timing couldn’t be better.

So after making a 90′s reference most of the kids won’t get today, let’s go into the FCP unpublished vault for an article written just after the hiring of Flip Saunders, which doubles in the present tense as a pretty decent article about the firing of Flip Saunders. Thoughts from 2009 are rining true now in 2012.

Dated reference in…

Ahh... Yes, Betty Was Quite The Hottie

3…

2…

1…

Diddly Doo, Diddly Doo… Diddly Doo…

If one is to have a conversation about Larry Brown these days it often becomes a little polarized to either Pistons or Knicks arguments. Often Larry gets slammed for being a poor coach in NY and having a loaded team in Detroit. These conversations usually revolve around some concepts about defence. After Flip Saunders was picked up by Washington a hard core Detroit fan said this to me.

One person does not set the tone for a good defensive team (KG).
A coach does not bring aboard the players to make a championship run.
Pistons won 10 playoff games each year that Flip coached.
Players simply “threw the switch” at that point of the run.
Larry doesn’t teach…ask his rookies, they don’t play…He bullies…

I can’t help but disagree. A good defensive team is always backed up by an anchor who can protect the paint and help on defence that the wings funnel into him. Garnett is amazing at this. The Wallaces on bad boys 2 (esp Ben) were too. Shaq on the strong Laker teams. Duncan’s Spurs are consistently one of the top 3 defensive teams in the league starting Tony Parker and a non-lock down Manu. It doesn’t matter who they put in there, Oberto/Elson/Jarren Jackson etc, Duncan anchors the D and everyone knows how to play off that anchor.

KG Was ALWAYS A Mad Dog Defender

KG Was ALWAYS A Mad Dog Defender

Look no further then KG on the Celtics. It wasn’t the addition of Ray Allen that gave them the #1 defence in the game. He set the tone and the rest of the team responded in his image holding themselves accountable for playing consistent hard defence. Thom Thibideau obviously had a lot to do with it however he was already in Boston for a year when KG showed up. They went from running the 16′th best defence to the first with the addition of ‘one’ player.

Coaching matters. Especially regarding Larry Brown. I honestly do think he’s responsible for destroying Darko’s confidence which is not a good thing but on the other hand Larry has always been great at teaching young players how to play right. He just never plays them. To this day Darko says he learned the most about ball from Larry and says so himself.

Oh The 70's... Larry Still Made The Rainbow Connection With His Teams, And They Responded

He produces results. Why? Because he makes you play D. Don’t D up? Break the system? You don’t play and your life is miserable. Results. He can wear out his welcome as seen from a few teams that wanted freedom… so Larry left those teams. One coach can make an incredible difference. Lets look at his own results on teams he coached the year before and after he showed up and compare them with Flip who the Wizards just hired. These two guys even have overlap of the same team so it will be very telling.

points allowed (aba) or defensive rank
year 2 rank    year 3 rank    year 4 rank    year 5 rank    year 6 rank    year 7 rank    comment
carolina    118    110    5′th
Denver    6′th    ’3rd    4′th    1rst
NewJersey    15′th    1rst
Spurs    22′nd    13′th    3′rd    1′rst    1′rst
Clips (half season larry brown)    9′th    5′th    11′th                   (its the clips after all and the team wanted to run, not play D, so Larry left)
Pacers    20′th    8′th    6′th
76ers    25′th    16′th    5′th    4′th    5′th    4′th
Pistons    4′th    2′nd         3′rd              (Pistons already had a great coach in Rick Carlile)
Knicks    25′th    25′th
Bobcats    20′th    7′th

Isiah? Check! Suit? Check! Fault is NOT your's!

In the case of New York I will call on the Isiah Thomas Corollary which states that any personal blame for losing is negated by that team’s being affiliated with Isiah Thomas given the pre-condition that Isiah is wearing a suit. Coming full circle to the importance of a defensive anchor: Larry’s ‘anchor’ was Eddy Curry.

When you look at his body of work I think it’s abundantly clear that one coach can make all the difference to a team committing or not. Mediocre coaches can’t. Great coaches not only can, but do. With all shapes, sizes and styles Brown made teams play significantly better. He’s fielded 16 top 5 defensive teams and 4 first place teams almost always starting off ranked in the bottom half of the league.

Compare this to Flip’s defensive rank results.
Team\Year    prev    1′rst    2′nd    3′rd    4′th    5′th    6′th    7′th    8′th    9′th    10′th
Wolves    26    20    15    23    11    12    16    15    16    6    15
Pistons    2    5    7    4
Wizards    29    18    24    23

He’s had one team finish in the top ten that wasn’t the Brown/Carlisle trained Pistons. The year after he left the Wolves Dwane Casey took over and promptly had a top ten defensive team starting guys like Trenton Hassell, Wally Szczerbjweofidj, Ricky Davis, Marko Jaric and Marcus Banks. In a decade Saunders only achieved this once, 4 spots higher for 6′th, when his team was loaded with savy veterans like Sam Cassall who coached the team for him. Even the Pistons went from 2′nd to 5′th to 7′th and back to 4′th.

It’s not all Flip’s fault. The success is not all Larry Brown. There is an observable trend though. When you’ve got the most versatile, energetic, willing, intimidating, un-mismatchable and committed defender in the league (KG)[[2]]{{and maybe history}}, in his prime, on your Timberwolves team for 9 years and you’re regularly in the bottom half of the league on D as a coach you’re not preparing your team to play to it’s strengths but to your preference.

So How Do You Keep Getting Hired? I Dunno Man, How Do You Keep Getting Fired?

I don’t know how Flip keeps getting hired. The Wiz are going to pick him up now. Why? I don’t get it… it all seems so obvious so how do the Wiz reconcile those numbers? How long before they realize the same things Minny and Detroit saw when they canned him? Teams giving half effort thinking they can flip the switch and win any game but often getting stung for it. And how is it that people still think Larry Brown is a problem coach when he’s done nothing but deliver his entire career?

Diddly doo, diddly doo, diddly doo…

And back to the present where we see Flip has been canned. We don’t hate Flip here. There is some truth to the notion that Flip’s teams delivered. He had numerous 50 and even some 60 win teams. He’s a player’s coach who’s always been well liked in the league. Teams try to hire coaches that their fans want to have there and Flip is an easy sell. If you’re hiring to win though I think the real sign of a great coach is not in his win/loss record. Mike Brown looks like a genius now. The mark of a great coach is seen in how the team improves in both skill and effort. If you need good players to show good results you’re just not that good a coach. Larry Brown did it with great and mediocre players. Flip did not.

The Days Of Wenches Are Sadly, Long Gone

Welcome to our first NBA Roundtable. We have combined forces with some of the best personalities on the internet and with our powers combined, hope our readers will appreciate the part of our sums. In no order, they are the Hoopstradamus, The Elusive Heisenberg and Downtown Charlie Brown both are contributors here, Sportschump fresh off his Ballhyped sportsblog of the year win (Gratz chump!), Fishman  from KeeperOfTheCourt.com,  and lastly myself from my Full Court sized home on the internet, The Pest.

Enough introductions. Lets put down a spread of food, have the wench bring us some ale, and inaugurate the first meeting of the NBA Roundtable.

1. Who are the legit contenders this season for an NBA title and who do you have in the finals?

Downtown Charlie Brown – Full Court Pest

I have the Heat and the Thunder in the finals with the Heat winning. I think Westbrook will try and prove a point which will cost his team and get him traded in the offseason. As far as contenders, obviously Miami, OKC, Indiana, LAL, and CHI. Those really are the only teams i see contending this year

Sports Chump – SportsChump.net

Of the three major sports leagues, picking chalk to win a title is usually safest in the NBA.  Nobody could have predicted that the Cardinals or Packers would have finished atop their respective leagues last year and for a change, nobody thought the Dallas Mavericks would be raising last year’s O’Brien Trophy either, which leads me to believe things will return to normalcy in 2012.  Miami has struggled early but I just think that team is too talented not to be there in the end.  And even though they have a new head coach, the Lakers are also as talented

The NBA's Version Of A Peace Pipe

as any team in the league.  While off to ferocious starts, I still see the potential number one seeds , Oklahoma City and Chicago, as too inexperienced… and experience wins championships in this league.  We’ve been waiting a while now for Kobe to square off against LeBron in a seven-game series.  Why not now is what I’m thinking.  Can you imagine the television ratings?  After a summer of discontent, that’d be David Stern’s wet dream.  He and Billy Hunter might actually smoke a peace pipe.

The Elusive Heisenberg – FullCourtPest.com

Miami- Made the finals last year and are even more dominant in this early season. Can’t count out a team with that much talent, and barring injuries to one of their main guys should make a deep playoff run.

Chicago- Offense looks a little less stagnant, and their defense is as terrific as ever. Will still have problems with Miami but look to be in good shape.

Oklahoma City- Durant, Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka, Collison, Perkins, Sefolosha, Cook, Maynor. This team has so much talent to not be considered as contenders.

Dallas- Despite losing Chandler/Barea I’m not going to count them out just yet. Their offense will be fine and Haywood is a suitable center.

Los Angeles- …. Lakers. Now even I’m not sold on this pick. However they have to be in the discussion with the way their big 3 of Kobe/Gasol/Bynum have been playing.

Finals: Miami vs OKC. Chicago didn’t make any moves that address how badly Miami dismantled them last year, and Miami just keeps looking better. OKC was primed to make the finals last year before they ran into Dallas playing the best basketball of their lives. So long as the Westbrook situation doesn’t blow up they should be playing for it all in June. Miami wins though.

The Hoopstradamus – Hoopstradamus.com

I’ve got Miami and Chicago in the East, and Boston as a dark horse contender. I think they’re being smart this year and taking it slow. I still fully believe that Boston is not a team anyone is going to want to face in the playoffs. Oh, and if Philly keeps up with what they’re doing right now, it’s going to be hard to ignore them as contenders.

The West is a bit more tough with teams like Portland and Denver. As far as sure-fire contenders go, I’m going with Oklahoma, and both Los Angeles teams. The thing about the West is that each of these teams have glaring weakness. No one knows what’s going on in Russell Westbrook’s or Vinny Del Negro’s head. The Lakers looked bad last year in the playoffs and now they lost Lamar. I never thought I’d say this, but I think Mike Brown may have actually rejuvenated the Lakers the way that Germany rejuvenated Kobe. And yes, I am completely ignoring last years champs.

The Pest – FullCourtPest.com

The Thunder, Clippers and Blazers in the West. Miami and Chicago in the East. I have no faith in anyone else’s medicine without funny things happening to alter the outcomes. I won’t deny a puncher’s chance at a lucky run by Memphis, Boston, LAL  or even San Antonio (and in that order) to make some noise, anything can and does happen in the playoffs, but I don’t think anyone else has the horses to stay in that race with the first six mentioned above. That means you Chandlerless Dallas.

Fishman – KeeperOfTheCourt.com

East: Heat, Bulls. West: Thunder, Clippers, Blazers

I currently have the Blazers and Heat in the finals. CP3 will courageously lead his teammates into battle, but their defensive woes and inexperience spell trouble. For the Bulls and Thunder, while talented, I expect them both to implode – this is mostly due to the type of offense they require from their point guards. No one can stop the Heat but themselves; their new additions and ever-so-ripe defense appear to put them above the league. The Blazers, looking surprisingly sharp following their adoption of a faster pace, appear to be a matchup nightmare for everyone.

2. What is going to be the biggest surprise of this season?

Downtown Charlie Brown - Full Court Pest

Have To Say, This Actually Sounds Plausible For The Chipmunk

Kobe wins his second MVP. Now stay with me, This may be Kobes last super productive season and i think they will want to honour the “old breed” before having to give MVPs to Durant, another to Rose. Howard will never win an MVP it seems and everyone hates Lebron so…. It is looking like he is going to have a fantastic year and i am sure his numbers will level off a little. I could see a 27/5.5/5.5 season out of him and if his shooting improves to 47% range, says all the right things and the Lakers win the Pacific and get a top 3 seed in the West. It very well could happen, you would have to overlook all the bad he does, but worse things have happened in MVP voting.

Sports Chump – SportsChump.net

Your average basketball fan knew which teams would be good and bad in 2012, however, I don’t think anybody could have predicted the 76ers would have gotten off to such a torrid start.  Aside from Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand, can you name another one of their starters?  I didn’t think so.  They currently have seven players scoring in double digits and rank atop the league in both points scored and allowed.  That’s a pretty good combination.  I guess Doug Collins can coach after all, huh?  I’m just happy I don’t have to listen to him on TNT anymore.

Fishman - KeeperOfTheCourt.com

Besides Jeremy Lin scoring 50 points, I’d have to go with the Philadelphia 76ers’ success. Doug Collins is one of the best basketball minds ever, and I firmly believe he has a way to get through to his young and talented roster. They’re already starting the year off strongly by showing a better understanding of their roles and looking very potent defensively.

The Elusive Heisenberg – FullCourtPest.com

Would a first round exit for the Knicks count? If not I’ll go with the Cavs making the playoffs. They are in that 8th spot now and Irving is starting to look more comfortable.

The Hoopstradamus – Hoopstradamus.com

The Cleveland Cavaliers. In the playoffs. Upsetting the Miami Heat. Okay, not the last part, but wouldn’t that be hilarious? Dan Gilbert got ridiculed a bit last year for drafting Tristan Thompson, but the Canadian is showing people that he can play! Kyrie Irving is also panning out well, putting up 17 points and 5 assists in just over 27 minutes a game so far. Right now, most people think the Cavs are just a team with potential but I could definitely see them making a run for the 7th – 8th seed.

The Pest – FullCourtPest.com

After years of doubt, ridicule, disrespect and general idiocy by national journalists David Kahn is going to take home the Executive Of The Year Award. Unlike Mark Warkentien who won because his injured players stopped being injured in 2009, David Kahn will deserve it. He created a plan and stuck to it for 2 years while the media made him a laughing stock. He acquired and retained several gifted young athletic players most of the league had given up on and told them he believed in them. Said he was going to deliver the next truly great point guard capable of making them stars. They bought in. He told them he’d use their talent to create a team a point guard could not refuse. He knew it’s the only way to retain a true star in a small market. Except that star told him not to draft him and refused to come over the ocean. People said he was over-rated, a bust in the making and would never play a game for the team.

David Kahn is The Honey Badger. He just doesn’t give a shit. He believed Rubio was what he thought he was. He believed he could make him come. Honey Badger takes what he wants. He drafted him and built that team anyway. Ricky Rubio couldn’t refuse. Ricky Rubio looks happy. Ricky Rubio looks like the Realio Dealio. He still packed on more talent like JJ Barea on an amazing contract. He hired a perfect fit top flight coach who got the most out of the same Webber who made fun of him above. The T-wolves are the most talented young team in the league, loaded with assets and picks and David Kahn looks like the most fearless GM in sports.

Fishman - KeeperOfTheCourt.com

Besides Jeremy Lin scoring 50 points, I’d have to go with the Philadelphia 76ers’ success. Doug Collins is one of the best basketball minds ever, and I firmly believe he has a way to get through to his young and talented roster. They’re already starting the year off strongly by showing a better understanding of their roles and looking very potent defensively.

3. What is the biggest potential trade of this season?

Downtown Charlie Brown – Full Court Pest

The obvious answer would be Dwight Howard. I am going to go a different direction. I see STAT getting traded this year. New York is just bad, They are a bunch of ISO and beat your man players trying to act like a team. I dont know where he goes, or what he is traded for but i could see him getting traded. Maybe for Josh Smith who is on his last legs in Atlanta, They could reach and go after Howard. I am sure they have many options, out of Melo and STAT you keep Melo and i think that is how it goes.

Sports Chump – SportsChump.net

I’ve been trying to come up with a name other than Dwight Howard to put in this category but I just couldn’t do it.  To pretend Dwight-gate isn’t the biggest trade story in the NBA is like saying the country has a slight unemployment problem and refusing to talk about it.  Not only does Orlando’s future hang in the balance with this deal, so does the future of the team he’s traded to.  Whether it’s Chicago, Los Angeles, New Jersey, Golden State, New York or some surprise team we haven’t heard about yet, those teams all stand to get substantially better, or worse, depending on what they give up to get him.  Of course, Dwight will likely still be in a Magic uniform come All-Star weekend where I’m sure he’ll be hosting VIP party after VIP party.  Heck, maybe he’ll have enough fun that weekend to decide he wants to stay in Orlando, and all this trade talk will be for not.  Most of us, however, think it’s a little too late for that.

Fishman - KeeperOfTheCourt.com

A Deron Williams trade could actually be more impactful than a Dwight Howard one, provided that Dwight goes to LA and fills in for Bynum…who might actually be a little better than him. If these specific events do not occur, this season is all about wherever Dwight Howard goes. I would really like to see him pair up with Deron Williams in New Jersey, simultaneously reviving Williams’ motivation and restoring the future of the franchise. If he ends up in Chicago – despite a loss of Noah or Deng – that team’s defense is going to be disgusting. If that happens, Thibbs needs to play Gibson over Boozer, as they’d have the potential to break all-time defensive records… that’s another matter though. Actually, Gibson should always play over Boozer. Have I mentioned that Carlos Boozer is bad at basketball?

The Elusive Heisenberg – Full Court Pest

Did You Hear The Man Sarver? Trade Steve Nash. Ding! Ding!

Other than the obvious Dwight Howard trade bonanza, something involving Steve Nash is my hope. Watching him on the Suns bums me out. I think Indiana needs to take a look at making a move for him. Pairing Nash with Granger/West/Hibbert/Hansbrough would be best for all involved. Collison can resume his New Orleans role as a sparkplug off the bench. Now to be fair I’m not sure who Indiana would have to give up, but if they keep most of their core intact and acquire Nash I would pick them to beat anyone other than Miami or Chicago in the Eastern Playoffs.

The Hoopstradamus – Hoopstradamus.com

Russell Westbrook for Deron Williams. It needs to happen. This is, of course, if the other biggest potential trade (Dwight Howard) doesn’t pan out for New Jersey. With Lopez on the sidelines the Nets have nothing to offer Orlando, and their abysmal record isn’t going to keep Deron happy, or attract Howard. For Oklahoma, they’ll finally have a pass first PG who will look for Durant first but still be able to produce for himself.

While this may sound far-fetched, the biggest long-term winner from a trade like this could be Russell Westbrook. I don’t like the way he plays, but that’s right now. He’s the type of guy that needs to spend some time on a team that he can call his own, without the pressure that contending in OKC next to Durant brings. Give him a season or two playing his way through his mistakes, and I really think he could become a guy I like. Until then though, I’ll still resort to calling him Westbrick.

The Pest – FullCourtPest.com

If Dwight is traded it impacts the entire league, but that is obvious. What’s more interesting is who’s really in the market to land him and make themselves an instant contender. With the obligatory change/third team that can make any trade happen, trading Chris Bosh, Amare/Chandler have got to be things these teams are considering. They’re good with what they have but they’re amazing with Dwight. What if the Wolves offer a package of Williams, Randolph, picks and change for Dwight? It’s really not a comfortable time to be really good in the NBA. My real pick: what the Clippers do with the glut of talent in the swing positions. One should be coming and the potential for them to be league dominating good is totally there.

Fishman - KeeperOfTheCourt.com

 A Deron Williams trade could actually be more impactful than a Dwight Howard one, provided that Dwight goes to LA and fills in for Bynum…who might actually be a little better than him. If these specific events do not occur, this season is all about wherever Dwight Howard goes. I would really like to see him pair up with Deron Williams in New Jersey, simultaneously reviving Williams’ motivation and restoring the future of the franchise. If he ends up in Chicago – despite a loss of Noah or Deng – that team’s defense is going to be disgusting. If that happens, Thibbs needs to play Gibson over Boozer, as they’d have the potential to break all-time defensive records… that’s another matter though. Actually, Gibson should always play over Boozer. Have I mentioned that Carlos Boozer is bad at basketball?

4. Are the Clippers for real as the team to beat in the league? In the West?

Downtown Charlie Brown - Full Court Pest

Ariel Photograph Of The Los Angelos Clippers, Circa Past NBA History

No and No. Paul is fantastic and you can see the chemistry building but they still have some major flaws. First off their back up bigs consist of Brian Cook and Reggie Evans. Let that sink in for a bit. After that they have glaring holes in their interior defense. It consists of Blake Griffin who is not known as a good defender and The 9 million dollar man Deandre Jordan. Jordan is a fantastic shot blocker who fouls too much and looks kind of lost out there at times. With Chauncey and Paul at the Guard spots and Butler playing the 3 they have good wing defense but with the way the rules areit all depends on Interior Defense and that is a spot they lack. They have some good trade chips so i expect a trade out of them to get a backup 4/5 player and maybe they can be that team.

Sports Chump – SportsChump.net

I don’t think there’s any doubt the Clippers are a playoff contender.  They’ve already beaten the Heat AND the Lakers this season, the two teams I picked to be in the Finals.  But this team has barely logged any minutes playing together.  Chris Paul will get some nods for this year’s MVP as most of us thought he would, but I still think they’re a strong guard and some depth away from being serious contenders.   Still though, no team, particularly a poor defensive one, wants to travel to Lob City.

Fishman - KeeperOfTheCourt.com

The Clippers are definitely not the team to beat in the league – that team remains as the Miami Heat provided their roster remains healthy and intact. If the Heat had made a few more free throws and ran offenses down the stretch the other night, they’d have handled the Clippers just fine. If we’re talking about the West, the Clippers are definitely towards the top, but the Thunder remain as the team to beat.

The Elusive Heisenberg – Full Court Pest

I didn’t even list them as a contender, so I’m going to say no. They haven’t shown any signs of real dominance to me anywhere other than highlight reels. Like I said, I love Paul and Blake, but they need a better coach and more time together. For next year they might be the team to beat in the West, unless OKC pulls it all together.

The Hoopstradamus – Hoopstradamus.com

Explain How The Two Brightest Stars Of The Newest Generation Of Superstars Were Shown The Ropes By Vinny Del Negro. Explain it NBA!?!?

Absolutely not. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are a formidable duo right now, but as a bitter Bulls fan I can say with confidence that VDN can and will find a way to screw it up this season. Despite last night’s game I still think the Lakers are a small step ahead of them, and I’d probably take OKC in a seven-game series as well. On the other hand, if the Clippers manage to turn their defense and rebounding around this season, I might change my mind.

The Pest – FullCourtPest.com

The Clippers are far from the perfect team and have their flaws. I admittedly picked them to win the title in Sportschump’s NBA Pick’em Contest at least partially to root for them. But every time I try to speculate on how they stack up against other teams I either end up way in their favor or it’s a wash. Every team in the West is flawed. I don’t trust Russell Westbrook at all. Portland is probably best suited and are depending on 37 and 38 year olds at the 5. I think the Lakers and Mavs are done with this conversation. So why not? The Clippers have superior players at the 1, 4 and 5 to every contender in the league and a ton of depth at the 2 and 3. Sorry, but I just don’t believe in Miami’s ability to match up. Not a problem in Chi-Town however their woeful offensive execution makes me lean wash on them too. LAC is going to be WAY better come playoff time then now so I’m picking Clippers.

Fishman - KeeperOfTheCourt.com

The Clippers are definitely not the team to beat in the league – that team remains as the Miami Heat provided their roster remains healthy and intact. If the Heat had made a few more free throws and ran offenses down the stretch the other night, they’d have handled the Clippers just fine. If we’re talking about the West, the Clippers are definitely towards the top, but the Thunder remain as the team to beat.

5. After two weeks which team had the best off-season, who had the worst?

Downtown Charlie Brown - Full Court Pest

I want to give props to the Clippers and Pacers for their offseasons but i feel Minnesota had the best off season. Not only did they bring in 2 rookies who could be a cornerstone of the franchise, they brought in a rookie who is fantastic to watch. The reason I put Minnesota first is not due to a turn around in their record, it still is quite poor at 3-7, it has to do with the impact on the fans. Minnesota, thanks to Rubio, is a can’t miss game when it is on TV and fans (myself included) are dying to try and get a Minnesota game on TV. Minnesota is 5th in overall attendance this year after being 24th last year. Rubio has truly made the game fun for the fans in Minnesota and it shows with ticket sales.

Win A Title, Leave Your Friends, Make Some Money, That's The NBA

The worst off season is tricky. Besides New Yorks absolutely moronic contract for Tyson Chandler i really think the Lakers had the worst off season just due to the trade that was rescinded. The team is playing good but that failed trade angered Lamar Odom who they had to give up for nothing, Pau probably has resentment over the trade and Bynum has shown he can be the go to big guy on a team which is something he may not have the chance to with Pau and Kobe with him as opposed to Paul and Kobe. Getting Chris Paul would have made the Lakers contenders for the title, Troy Murphy could have started alongside Bynum and they would have been fine, but now it looks like they will contend for the division title and not much else as they are largely the same team as last year and any improvments in Bynum are offset by losing Odom.

Sports Chump – SportsChump.net

If it weren’t for Tim Tebow, the Clippers are all anybody would be talking about this winter.  It’s hard not to find Blake Griffin’s face on every third television commercial and I don’t think there’s any question they made the off-season’s biggest splash by landing Chris Paul.  They’ve gone from a team that nobody watches to must see TV.  I’d say the worst off-season would have to go to the Washington Wizards who did absolutely nothing to improve their team.  Either them or the Sacramento Kings, who appear to be dead team walking.  The Maloof’s matching Louis Vuitton suitcases are as good as packed, meaning we can all stop making fun of Seattle as the only city who let a team get away.  Nobody knows for sure whether the Kings will move to Anaheim.  Now that there are two GOOD teams in L.A., there might not be as much interest for a third one in SoCal, meaning Kings’ fans might ironically have Chris Paul to thank for staying put.  My honorable mention for a team with the worst off-season has to go with the New Orleans Hornets, who not only lost the face of their franchise, they were reminded that they’re essentially nothing more than a league-owned farm team waiting to disband.

Fishman - KeeperOfTheCourt.com

Best: LA Clippers. Sure, they had to give up a good amount of young talent, but it was more than worth it. Butler was an underrated pickup, and while I’m not a huge fan of running Billups at the two position, the Clippers have transformed themselves into a versatile, intelligent team who can contend for many upcoming years.

Worst: Sacramento Kings. They offered a $40 million dollar contract to Marcus Thornton – a scorer. As if they didn’t already possess enough one-dimensional players in Fredette, Salmons, and Garcia? The newly acquired Travis Outlaw has also proven to be worthless for the Kings. Thornton’s contract, along with these signings and the loss of their most willing passer in Udrih provide for a laughable situation in Sacramento. Things aren’t looking any better when you consider Cousins’ attitude problems and the recent firing of Paul Westphal.

The Elusive Heisenberg – FullCourtPest.com

Best offseason I still think goes to the Clips. They got Billups for dirt cheap, acquired a top 5 player in Paul, and retained DeAndre Jordan. While they aren’t on pace for 1st in the West or anything their offseason moves have panned out for the most part. If they can trade Williams/Billups for a legitimate shooting guard they will be in great shape.

Worst is tough. Lakers lost Odom (and their Bynum injury insurance) for essentially nothing in return, and one of their players changed his name to Metta World Peace. With that said, they are still potential contenders, give credit to Mike Brown for renewed focus on defense. Phil Jackson was an all time great, but sometimes teams just need a change of scenery, and it’s looking good for the Lakers so far.

So I’m going to have to say Dallas. Even though I listed them as contenders, they really won’t be the same team without Chandler and Barea, and Odom looks lost out there. They could prove me wrong but I really don’t like what they did (although their hand was sort of forced, they can’t pay everybody).

The Hoopstradamus – Hoopstradamus.com

I’ve got the two teams from LA here again. I have to give the Clippers the best off-season. They got one of the three biggest potential prizes in Chris Paul, filled that small forward gap for a slightly over-paid Caron Butler and added Reggie Evans for cheap, to fill a back-up role they were desperate to fill. They stole Billups for less than four million dollars and retained DJ who is out to prove that he is worth his contract.

On the other side of Hollywood live the Los Angeles Lakers though. After a disappointing defeat in last year’s playoffs, Lakers fans put their hopes in to the idea of getting Chris Paul, Dwight Howard or maybe even both. Before the season was set to start, this looked very possible. All of this was of course, before “basketball reasons” happened. After David Stern vetoed the trade, the Lakers went from possibly having the best off-season to the worst. They had to give away Lamar Odom because he was unhappy, but they just decided to give him to the team that swept them, which was just mind-boggling to me. While I don’t think they’re contenders for a championship, they’re contenders for Dwight and Deron, and Odom could be a valuable asset to those trades. On top of all of that, no more Phil Jackson, and Gasol isn’t likely to be in high spirits either.

The Pest – FullCourtPest.com

It’s between Portland and Minny. Portland added Gerald Wallace who fits like a pod around peas ( I know this was a late season add, but it’s a gimme), got way younger at the point by flipping Miller for Felton and added another pea pod player in Crawford who ‘will’ hit Ball Swingin Shots in the playoffs for them. Ask yourself this: how many teams in history have actually managed to get much better after losing their best player in his prime for nothing? It’s pretty special how they managed.

Minny on the other hand finally got Rubio to come over and show everyone he’s legit, signed Anthony Tolliver, Wesley Johnson and JJ Barea to a ridiculously favorable contracts. They picked up the perfect coach in Rick Adleman. Anthony Randolph and Beasley are showing signs of coming around. And oh yea, they drafted Derrick Williams who has all-star written all over him. Minny wins.

I think Dallas loses. Not paying Chandler was worth it in the long run, but their team is undeniably weaker. That they can’t motivate Lamar Odom beyond scrub level hoop and that their geriatric roster is even older, it’s looking pretty sad for the champs.

Fishman - KeeperOfTheCourt.com

Best: LA Clippers. Sure, they had to give up a good amount of young talent, but it was more than worth it. Butler was an underrated pickup, and while I’m not a huge fan of running Billups at the two position, the Clippers have transformed themselves into a versatile, intelligent team who can contend for many upcoming years.

Reality: At The End Of The Season We Will Run Another Round Table - Topic: How Dumb Do We Sound Now?

Worst: Sacramento Kings. They offered a $40 million dollar contract to Marcus Thornton – a scorer. As if they didn’t already possess enough one-dimensional players in Fredette, Salmons, and Garcia? The newly acquired Travis Outlaw has also proven to be worthless for the Kings. Thornton’s contract, along with these signings and the loss of their most willing passer in Udrih provide for a laughable situation in Sacramento. Things aren’t looking any better when you consider Cousins’ attitude problems and the recent firing of Paul Westphal.

Now let’s look at their reasons.

Defence Fanatics

These are probably the most reasonable group of Nash critics. They usually admit that Nash is a phenomenal offensive player but maintain that he can’t be considered a superstar/all-time great since he only plays half the game. Now I addressed in part 1 how Nash’s defensive deficiencies are massively exaggerated, especially when it comes to smart team defence. What they don’t accept is that defence really isn’t half the game for point guards. When you consider the numerous ways a point guard can impact a team’s offence compared to defence, i would estimate that defence is about 25% of the game for point guards, and that might be a stretch. Now of that 25%, team defence is more important as explained above, so let’s say 15%. That means that man to man defence is about 10% of the game for point guards. Obviously these numbers are just my opinions, but I think I have given a reasonable explaination as to why I believe this to be the case. So does being poor at 10% of the game make that big of a difference when you are above average at 15% of it and beyond amazing at the remaining 75%? I don’t think so.

(Note: I know that the previous paragraph probably sounds like a whole lot of opinion and very little fact. While this is true, take a look back at the defence section in Part 1, namely take a look at how many poor defensive point guards have started for all time great defensive teams, and how even terrific defensive point guards could do little to make their team elite on that end)

With that said, these critics have a point, I just think it’s blown out of proportion.

On to the next group.

Championship Lovers

The most annoying group in my opinion. Their problem is that they are incapable of distinguishing between individual play/success and team play/success. Here is their standard line.

Steve Nash is so overrated! How can a two time MVP never win a ring? How can he never even play in a finals if he’s so good? (insert a bunch of other meaningless drivel)

This is complete nonsense. Your team winning is not a reflection of your abilities as a player. I wrote about it in a previous post (http://www.fullcourtpest.com/2011/06/dirk-is-great-but-lets-take-it-easy.html). This often comes up in any Kobe vs anyone discussion, where Kobe’s 5 rings are used as some sort of trump card. (Championship Lovers and Kobe fans are often the same people, but not always).

The whole “never played in a finals” line is brought up most often in Kidd/Nash debates. Since they played at roughly the same time, and were both MVP candidates at some point (Nash won 2, Kidd came second in 02), their careers are compared routinely. The main arguments for Kidd are…

1. Defence/rebounding

2. He dragged 2 teams to the finals (and recently won a ring as a role player).

I already addressed how I feel about point guard defence, but I will admit that Kidd does hold a significant edge over Nash in that regard. And rebounding is nice regardless of the position, although once again it’s more important as a center. My big issue is with the second point.

Let’s first assume that the number of rings you own is somehow an indicator of your merits as a player. There then comes the issue that not all championships or finals appearances can be considered equal. To show this, let’s look at the teams Kidd and the Nets beat to make the finals.

2002- Beat the 42 win Pacers 3-2, beat the 44 win Hornets 4-1, beat the 49 win celtics 4-2. Got swept by the 58 win Lakers.

2003- Best the 42 wins Bucks 4-2, beat the 44 win Celtics 4-0, and swept the 50 win Pistons. Lost in 6 to the to win Spurs.

Of those, the only truly impressive victory was sweeping the 50 win Pistons. That Pistons team did win the championship the next year, but they had yet to acquire Rasheed Wallace, and Tayshaun Prince was a rookie who played just 42 games and averaged 10 minutes. So it wasn’t the same team at all. Nevertheless, sweeping a 50 win team is always impressive.

So in those 2 years they beat 6 teams with an average of 45 wins between them, and lost to 2 teams with an average of 59 wins.

Now let’s look at Nash in those same 2 years, and figure out why he never got to meet up with Kidd in the finals.

2002- Beat the 50 win Timberwolves 3-0, lost to 61 win Kings 4-1.

2003- Beat the 50 win Blazers 4-3, beat the 59 win Kings 4-3, lost to the 60 win Spurs 4-2.

So the Mavs beat 3 teams who won an average of 53 games between them, and lost to 2 who won an average of 60.5 games between them.

Now obviously winning/losing isn’t entirely the result of one player’s performance, but lots of championship lovers tend to think this way. Nash’s teams beat significantly tougher teams than Kidd’s did and lost to roughly the same quality of teams the Nets did (they both lost 4-2 to the 2003 Spurs).

Now that’s not fair, Nash had more help those years than Kidd had, no doubt about it. But I won’t deny that Kidd was better than Nash in 2002 and 2003. The whole point of this is to show how team success is related to, but absolutely not equivalent to, individual success.

Now let’s look beyond those 2 years. Let’s look at both of their extended primes, which for Kidd was from about 1995-2006, and for Nash was from about 2001-present. We will compare the opponents they played in each playoff run.

Let’s first look at teams they beat.

* Denotes Lockout season. Blazers went 35-15, which is a winning percentage equivalent to 57 wins in a full length season.

So Kidd didn’t beat a single team that won more than 50 games other than the 2000 Spurs who won 53 but were missing the 2nd best player in the league. Every other time they played a team that won more than 50 games they lost, counting the Blazers lockout year it works out to a 0-7 record vs teams that won more than 50 games. So what was Kidd doing that was so special? He was beating up on 44 win teams to make the finals in the weakest conference in history, while Nash was stuck in the juggernaut Western Conference.

Nash beat 7 teams that won 50 or more games to Kidd’s 1 (once again, Duncanless Spurs don’t count). As for his losses, he lost to the eventual champion 4 times, same number as Kidd (Note that Nash also lost to the (probable) rightful champion 2002 Kings, and the (possible) champion 2006 Mavericks. The Kings deserved to beat the Lakers but the refs screwed them. The Mavs got screwed by the refs but also screwed themselves over). Nash lost to the runner up one time (Kidd 0), a conference finalist 3 times (2 for Kidd), and a team that made the 2nd round only once (Kidd had 3).

So clearly Nash beat tougher teams and lost to better teams than Kidd did. Why? Because he played in a tougher conference. Other than that previously mentioned win against the Duncanless Spurs, Kidd couldn’t win a playoff series until he went East, losing in the first round in ’97, ’98, ’99, and 2001, and once again I am supremely confident they would have lost in 2000 given Duncan’s reputation for kicking ass in the playoffs.

Even giving them that win, Kidd went 1-7 vs the west. Nash went 11-9.

Now here’s the important part…. NONE OF THAT MATTERS! At all. Just because Nash beat better teams does not make him the better player. Winning a series generally depends on about 8 players on each team, the coaches, and, sadly, the refs (cough 2002 cough). But for all those people who try to say Kidd was better than Nash because of team success, Kidd had the easy road to the finals.

Now I’m not going to give Nash too much credit for the teams they beat, and I also won’t give him too much blame for the times they lost. So who am I going to blame. There are 2 people in particular.

Tim Duncan, and Robert Sarver. Let’s talk about Duncan first.

Duncan beat the crap out of the Suns, they couldn’t stop him. They threw double teams at him, he still scored or found open teammates. He anchored the defence and kept the Suns away from the rim. He bullied them on the boards. The Suns had no answer. The Spurs beat Nash’s team in 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2008. Three of those times they went on to win the title, the other 2 times they made the conference finals. Am I going to blame Nash because Dirk and Amare couldn’t handle Duncan? Of course not. I’m not blaming Nash, I’m crediting Duncan, who is one of the greatest players to ever play, and a far better player overall then Nash. Nash was beat by a superior player, with superior teammates, with a superior coach, and, here’s maybe the most important part, a much much much much better organization.

What am I referring to? Well it brings me back to Robert Sarver. He’s the Suns owner for anyone who doesn’t know, and he is more responsible for Nash’s failure to win a ring than anyone.

Let me present the fine management the Suns have enjoyed since acquiring Nash.

2005- Nash arrives and changes the whole dynamic of the team. They surround him with an inside scorer in Amare, a versatile wing player in Marion, a secondary playmaker/shooter in Joe Johnson, and other top of the line 3 point shooters. Who cares that they were pretty poor defensively, they couldn’t be stopped. It worked to the tune of 62 wins. They lost in the conference finals to the eventual champion Spurs, partly because Duncan kicked the shit out of them, and partly because Joe Johnson fractured his eye socket in the previous round. So after this exceedingly successful season, what does management do? They piss of Joe Johnson so much that he asks them not to match the 70 million dollar offer sheet from Atlanta (Johnson shot 48% from 3 that year, scored 17 points per game, led the team in minutes per game, and handled the ball when Nash needed a break. I would never give him up.) He leaves, management trades Quentin Richardson (15 points and 3 threes per game) to New York along with a future pick for Kurt Thomas.

2006- The Suns lose Amare for the season (plays 3 games). Even though they lost their only inside (and best) scorer, their best shooter other than Nash (Johnson), and one of their better 3pt bombers (Richardson), they still win 54 games. They lost to Dallas in 6 games in the conference finals. Give them Joe Johnson that year, and I think they win the ring. So what were management’s brilliant moves for this summer to build off another successful year? They traded the number 21 pick(which they had acquired in 2004 by trading their number 7 pick to save money) along with Brian Grant to Boston for Cleveland’s 2007 number one in a straight salary dump (Cleveland’s pick was bound to be junk as Cleveland was improving every year). Then they sold the number 27 pick that year to Portland. And the best part, after trading those 2 first round picks to dump salary, they gave Marcus Banks a 4 year 24 million dollar deal. Marcus Banks! I watched him in Phoenix, he sucked. I watched him in Toronto, he still sucked. How was Marcus Banks ever worth 6 million a year? Then they gave Boris Diaw a 5 year 45 million dollar deal. This deal made sense since Diaw had played well for them that year (13 7 and 6 with solid defence), but made no sense since there and there was no telling how Diaw would perform with Amare back in the line-up. (Diaw’s numbers dropped to 10 4 and 5, not exactly worthy of 9 million a year). So they gave 69 million to Banks and Diaw instead of giving 70 million to Joe Johnson. Smart move.

2007- Won 61 games, lost in conference semis to eventual champion Spurs on the controversial Stoudemire/Diaw suspensions. After the season they traded the number 24 pick (Rudy Fernandez) to Portland for 3 million. They traded Kurt Thomas to Seattle along with 2 first rounders (2008, 2010) just to clear him off the cap! So they traded away the number 7 pick in 2004 for the number 21 pick two years later so that they could sign Richardson who they traded to New York for Thomas who they ended up having to give up two first rounders to get off their cap. Aren’t GM’s brilliant?

2008- Traded Shawn Marion for Shaq mid-season, with the plan being to get bigger to stop Duncan from mercilessly destroying them every spring. Never mind that it lost them their run and gun small ball identity that had been winning them 60+ games, just throw away your best defender for an old fat man who still can’t guard Duncan. The only thing that made this trade somewhat defensible was that Marion was clearly unhappy in Phoenix.

2010- After an impressive playoff run (eventually losing in 6 to the eventual champion Lakers featuring Kobe playing one of his best series ever), Sarver decides not to resign Amare. The issue was that they were not willing to guarantee 100+ million dollars to a big man with a history of injuries, especially since with an aging Nash they were looking at a potential rebuilding stage in the near future. As much as I would like to criticize this move I can see their logic.

Obviously any organization makes mistakes, but few are so blatantly cheap, especially when they are clearly contenders. Most organizations are willing to shell out a few extra bucks to put their team over the top, not the Suns. They traded away numerous picks with no reason other than “Sorry guys, our owner would rather have 3 million bucks”. That number 7 pick in 2004? The consensus pick was Luol Deng. Give them a line up of Nash, Marion, Stoudemire, Johnson, and Deng, and that team wins multiple championships, and approaches 70 wins most years, I am convinced. They wouldn’t even need a competent bench, since its not hard to find a couple guys to shoot wide open threes.

And this is why I blame Robert Sarver. His cheapness not only prevented his already very talented team from improving, it actually made them worse. They were the most talented team in the NBA in 2005, and lost a little bit of it every year. Give Nash a competent owner/organization, and his career looks much different, and all his haters shut up.

Except for this group…

Kobe Fans

As I mentioned these are often also “championship lovers”, but Kobe fans hate on Nash for different reasons. We can get into the whole argument about selfishness or defence or what not, but from what I’ve found most people just have a problem with the results of the 2006 MVP vote. The hate cooled down a little bit once Kobe won an MVP in 2008, but it didn’t die. They still feel Kobe was robbed by Nash. Nevermind that Kobe came 4th in the voting, behind both Lebron and Dirk, it was just Nash who robbed him. All in all, they feel that Kobe Bryant has always been a better player than Steve Nash, and that it is just incorrect that he has only 1 MVP, and that it is a travesty that Nash has 2. They are right in a sense. Kobe did not deserve 1 MVP. He deserved 0. Chris Paul was the MVP in 2008. But this isn’t a Kobe article, or a Paul article, so I won’t focus on that. I’ll focus on the other part. And I agree with Kobe fans, Nash did not deserve 2 MVPs.

He deserved 3.

Now this idea sounds ridiculous to some, but let’s look at Nash from 2005-2007.

Now from a numbers standpoint, his 2007 season is by far the most impressive. As was mentioned in the shooting section it’s one of the greatest shooting seasons of all time. From a team standpoint, it’s more impressive than his 05 season, since he won only 1 fewer game with a worse supporting cast. However, people strangely tend to think one of the following.

Nash deserved 0 MVPs. Shaq deserved it in 05, either Kobe or Lebron deserved it in 06, and Dirk deserved
it in 07.

Nash deserved the MVP in 2005 only.

Nash deserved 2 MVPs, either 05 and 06, or 06 and 07.

Most people seem to understand Nash getting the MVP in 2005. He went to a Phoenix team where the only significant roster change was Marbury leaving, and he sparked a 33 game turnaround. A good number feel he should have won it in 2007, but agree with him not getting it because he won undeservedly in 06. Now I think he should have won all three, but if I have to rank the seasons, it would be, from most deserved to least.

2006

2007

2005

Which is of course the opposite of the general opinion. So let’s break it down, starting with…

2005

He averaged essentially 16 and 12, shot 50/43/88 for a 62 win team, a ridiculous 33 more wins than the year before. He was the motor behind their offense, boosting them from the 21st placed offense in 2004 to the best offense that season, while helping his teammates flourish like never before (see The Nash Effect section in Patrt 1). His only serious competition that year was Shaq, who averaged 23 and 10 with 60% shooting and 2 blocks for a 59 win Heat team. Pretty impressive for sure. The Heat improved by 17 wins from the previous season, a rather substantial jump. But how much of that was due to the Big Shaqtus? The 04 team had a rookie Dwyane Wade, who averaged 16 4 4.5 on 46.5% shooting. The 05 team had a much improved Wade, as he averaged a 24 5 7 on 48% shooting, near MVP level numbers for him. Does gaining Shaq, losing Lamar Odom and Caron Butler (9ppg that year), seeing a massive improvement from Wade, and only gaining 17 wins compare at all to replacing Marbury with Nash and jumping 33 wins? I don’t really think it does, especially when you consider that the Heat played in a weaker conference. I’m not trying to belittle Shaq, he was extremely important to that team. However, while Nash’s numbers may have not quite matched Shaq’s, his impact on the team certainly did. I give it to Nash, but this is clearly the closest of his 3 MVPs (I know he only received 2, we’re getting to that).

Note. For anyone who points out that Amare was injured in 05 (played only 55 games) it should be pointed out that even when he did play they had a winning percentage that equated to 33 wins over an 82 game season, so the “Amare was injured” argument holds little merit.

Next case.

2007

His numbers were incredible. Nearly 19 points and 12 assists, 53% shooting from the field, 46% from 3 (on a staggering 4.5 attempts per game), 90% from the line, lead the league in TS% etc. His best statistical season by any measure. Either by raw numbers, or advanced stats (careers best PER, TS%, EFG%, ORTG, and Win Shares), this season crushes them all. But it’s not all about stats, so let’s look at his impact.

His team won 61 games. Amare was back and averaged 20/10 on 58% shooting. Barbosa averaged 18/3/4 and shot 48%. Marion went for 18/10 and shot 52%. Bell and Diaw were also solid role players.

The other 4 candidates for the MVP were Dirk (who won), Kobe (3rd), Duncan (4th), and Lebron (5th). Let’s look at them now.

Dirk- 25 9 3, 50/42/90, 67 wins

Kobe- 32 6 5, 1.4 steals, 46/34/87, 42 wins

Duncan- 20 11 3, 2.4 blocks, 54% shooting, 58 wins

Lebron- 27 7 6, 1.6 steals, 48/32/70, 50 wins.

Obviously these numbers paint a pretty poor picture, as basic stats can’t to a great job of describing a player’s MVP case, but we can draw some conclusions from them.

Firstly, Kobe doesn’t belong. He had a worse season than the year before, and while I don’t feel an MVP has to lead a team to 60+ wins or anything, winning only 42 games is only acceptable if your supporting cast is just terrible beyond belief, and I don’t feel Kobe’s was. He’s out.

Duncan is more interesting. He had a fantastic season, his numbers don’t even begin to describe his impact on the defensive end, as they finished the season ranked second defensively. He had a case.

Lebron certainly fit the definition of the word valuable, as he dragged a pretty horrible team to 50 wins (and eventually a place in the finals, but MVP is only for the regular season), but his numbers don’t even match up to Nash’s when you consider Nash’s all time great shooting season. So Lebron is out.

Dirk won the award, because his team won 67 games in a loaded Western conference. He had a good bit of offensive help from Josh Howard and Jason Terry among others, but there was a reason the Mavs were ranked 5th defensively and the Suns 13th, and it had very little to do with Dirk. It was that the Mavs had a quality defensive center (Dampier), while the Suns were playing the undersized and lazy Amare Stoudemire there. So do I give Dirk credit for having a quality defender backing him up? I don’t think that makes sense. I’m not saying Dirk didn’t have a case, I just think he got too much credit for his team’s wins.

So the 3 real candidates are Nash, Dirk, and Duncan. Duncan had arguably the best coach in the league, two fantastic offensive players in Parker and Ginobili, and another defensive stud in Bruce Bowen and other quality role players, and yet he won fewer games with less impressive numbers. Sorry, I love Duncan’s game, but he was not more valuable than Nash that year. So it’s Nash and Dirk.

They won a similar number of games and came 1-2 in the standings. Their numbers were close with a slight advantage going to Nash. It’s a little close to call from just this information, let’s look at the voting totals.

Dirk- 1138 points

Nash- 1013 points

So it was very lose. Now there’s a historical precedent here. People want new MVP’s. There’s a reason Jordan didn’t win in 1993, or 1997. There’s a reason Kareem didn’t win in 1973. It’s the reason why Lebron wouldn’t have won this year even if he stayed in Cleveland (hypothetical I know, but barring another otherwordly season I think it would have happened). Writers get bored of voting for the same player over and over.

They also have a sentimental side. They love voting for players who have never won before, but who have beenelite for a long time. This is why Kobe won in 08, why Erving won in 81, why Malone won in 97. There are many examples.

Now both of these factors are present here. Dirk had been a candidate for a while, never the top candidate, but a candidate nonetheless. His career was winding down (or so many people thought), he was a sentimental pick (although he still had MVP credentials). Nash was a 2 time winner, writers were tired of voting for him. However, in this case it was even worse. Not only was Nash a 2 time winner, he was a back to back winner. The only other people to win 3 straight? Bird, Russell, and Wilt. People were in an uproar, they just couldn’t give Nash the MVP if it meant joining this elite group. The fact that he came so darn close despite these factors shows that he was deserving. I don’t think Dirk has a valid argument here.

Now for the most debated of them all, let’s look at 2006. The most contested MVP of the 3, and in my opinion the most deserved.

First, let’s look at the voting.

Nash- 924 points

Lebron- 688 points

Dirk- 544 points

Kobe- 483 points

So it wasn’t exactly close, not a blowout either, but not close. I could show the numbers (and I will), but here is all you need to know to understand why Nash deserved this MVP. In 2005 his team won 62 games. Their top 5 scorers were Amare (26 ppg), Marion (19.4 ppg), Joe Johnson (17.1 ppg), Nash (15.5 ppg), and Quentin Richardson (14.9 ppg). No one else averaged more than 9 points. Their top 4 rebounders were Marion (11.3), Amare (8.9), Richardson (6.1) and Johnson (5.1). That summer, Johnson was sent to Atlanta for Boris Diaw (who played a mere 18 mpg for a 13 win team that year) and draft picks. Diaw was a throw in. Quentin Richardson was traded to New York for Kurt Thomas.

So in 2006, Phoenix was playing without 3 of its top 5 scorers from the previous year, and 3 of its top 4 rebounders. It replaced them with Kurt Thomas (solid), Bell (also solid), and Diaw (a trade throw in). This was their effort to replace a guy who had averaged 26 and 9 the year before and who came 9th in MVP voting (Amare), a player who averaged 17 points while shooting 48% from 3 (on 4.5 attempts) and handling the secondary playmaking duties (Johnson), and a guy who averaged 15 points and made 3 threes a game (Richardson). People were talking about the team being mediocre, a number of analysts had them missing the playoffs. So what did they do? They won 54 games in a stacked western conference (two 60+ win teams, only one under 33 wins). The Suns won 54 games and 3 of their top 5 players were named Barbosa, Bell, and Boris freakin’ Diaw. This is a Billy Beane “Moneyball” situation, except the success wasn’t due to some brand new management style, it was because one of the guys they kept was worth more than anyone knew. How can anyone say Nash wasn’t the most valuable?

Well they still do, so I’ll go further. Let’s look at some numbers.

Lebron clearly has the best numbers. They are just astounding. However, one must remember that the Cavs system isn’t predicated on ball movement like the Suns and Mavs were, it was all about giving Lebron the ball, spacing the floor, and either letting him isolate or give him a screen. In this way, the system presented Lebron with the perfect opportunity to pile up numbers. I’m not saying he didn’t play great, he did, but when you consider the system, and also the that the East was noticeably weaker than the West, the numbers combined with the team success don’t put him over Nash for me, who had great numbers (look at that TS%!) and had a tremendous impact on his team in a tougher conference. However, I would put Lebron second if I were doing an MVP ballot that year. Dirk was great, as usual, but he won only 6 more games than Nash with a noticeably stronger supporting cast. His numbers are also weaker in my opinions, as 9 rebounds in 38 minutes is average at best, and his 8 more points per game do not make up for Nash’s better percentages and domination when it comes to assists. Nash wins.

Now for Kobe… the enigma. Oddly enough this is the main guy who people insist deserved it more than Nash, nevermind that he came 4th. Let’s look at Kobe’s year.

He scored. And scored. And scored some more after that. The highest ppg average in almost 20 years. Did I mention he scored a lot? He had an 81 point game. He scored 62 in 3 quarters once. He was simply a scoring machine.

And that’s the problem. That’s all he really did that year. Anyone who watched him that year knew he wasn’t committed to defence, his only priority was scoring. Now to be fair, his team needed him to score, and to score lots. However, I cannot say Kobe was more valuable than Nash when Nash had over twice as many assists despite Bryant dominating the ball that year, scored far more efficiently, and grabbed only 1 less rebound despite being 4 inches shorter, not nearly as athletic, and a point guard.

Now Kobe fans can’t accept this, because Kobe apparently had a historic scoring season. But was it really that historic? Could Lebron have averaged 35 that year instead of 31 if he had tried to score instead of averaging 2 extra dimes and didn’t put as much energy into rebounding? I think so. There are several players capable of becoming volume scorers, but there was only one player who could do what Nash did with Phoenix that year. Nash was the MVP, it wasn’t close.

Once again recall that writers tend to vote for new MVPs. Nash winning back to back would put him amongstthe ranks of Russell, Chamberlain, Kareem, Moses, Bird, Magic, Jordan, and Duncan as the only consecutive winners. And yet he still finished with more first place votes (57) than Dirk, Kobe, and Lebron combined (52).

The funny part about Nash’s MVP saga is that you cannot possibly argue that he deserved neither the 05 nor the 06 MVP. The only reason not to give it to him in 05 was that he had a very talented team, which is true, even though that team won only 29 games the year before. However, when the talent left or got injured, , they were still extremely successful the next year. The only 2 players who started for both teams were Nash and Marion, and you would have to be a fool to think Marion was anywhere near as important as Nash.

So I think we’ve got all the bases covered. I could recount my points, but that could take awhile. The point of this article is not to make a definitive statement about Nash’s career. I’m not going to say he’s a top 10 player, I’m not going to call him the greatest point guard, I’m not going to do anything like that. What I wanted to do was do my best to solve every debate involving Nash. While obviously that’s impossible, I think the statistical evidence I’ve presented makes for a fairly decent defense against any criticisms he has received in his career. He’s not perfect, no one is, but he is pretty damn amazing, you have to give him that.

Just a warning, What you are about to read is probably the most detailed defence of Steve Nash’s career that you have ever seen. As a result it is very long, and will be split into 2 parts.

Disclaimer: This article has been on the shelf for over a year, and the majority of it was written prior to or during the 2011 season. I have updated all relevant stats to reflect performance in 2011, but this does not include any stats from the 2012 season.

With that out of the way, let’s get started.

Steve Nash is generally considered to be a great guy and a tremendous basketball player. However, in my experience watching and discussing the NBA, he has more haters than i could possibly count. Who are these people who feel the need to tear down this player who is by all accounts the ultimate teammate, a great leader, and one of the most generous, charismatic, entertaining, and well-spoken superstars of his generation. From what I can tell, they usually fall into one of the 3 categories.

You’ve all heard them. Their mottos include “Defence is half the game”, “Defence wins championships” etc. They argue that Nash, while great offensively, is essentially overrated due to his minimal impact on the other end of the floor.

The most interesting group. We’ll get to them later.

So now that we’ve established who Nash’s main critics are, lets look at their arguments.

1. Nash is a defensive liability which reduces his overall impact on the court.
2. He has never won a championship. In fact he is the only MVP other than Rose to never play in the NBA finals.
3. He was a product of D’Antoni’s run and gun system which boosts players’ stats through increased pace and fast break opportunities.
4. He didn’t deserve his two MVPs.
5. He’s Canadian.

Kidding aside, that’s about all the criticism I have heard. Now, the counter points, what does Nash do well (I’ll back up these claims in a bit).

1. He is the best shooter in NBA history.
   
2. He runs the most efficient offenses of all time.
3. He is one of the best passers of all time.
4. He is a clutch player.
5. He is a very underrated team defender.
6. He has a bigger impact on his teammates’ performances than any player I have seen.

Those are some pretty big claims, time for some evidence.

Shooting

So I said that Nash is the greatest shooter of all time. There are many people who share this opinion, and there have been several articles written on the subject. But let’s see just how much proof I can give you.

You Are Here! Or At Least I Am...

One of the interesting things about living on another continent is detachment from the mainstream society you grew up in. You are unplugged from the matrix. Without passively understanding what’s being said around you the tools the media machine use to ensnare you become disabled. It’s a comprehension based EMP Shockwave. Stories about Terri Schivo {{1}}[[1]]tubeytubes[[1]] or The OJ Trial that previously occupied many thoughts have become the Tiger Woods affair: something I heard about for five minutes and then marveled about how people were still talking about it on facebook months later.

After experiencing this detachment from Michael Jackson’s death, The Balloon Boy and various negative Obama/Political stories I came up with a name for the phenomenon. Two names actually. These events are either Media Driven Misconceptions (MDM’s) like the Obama stories or Media Driven Distractions (MDD’s) like the trivial Tiger Woods saga. There’s no arena where they are more powerful then the world of sports.

Tiger wants YOU! And You! Oh, And You Look Cute Too!

It starts with a trickle. Various sources start saying thing that doesn’t seem to make sense. Last year the entire first month of the season was dominated by MDMs trashing the Miami Heat. Chris Bosh was playing terribly and should be traded. Lebron has major problems with his coach. Then when they railed off a 39-6 win streak rather then lose face they created another MDM, Derrick Rose, not Lebron was the one playing MVP basketball.

MDM’s start during high profile events. Casual comments are made that everyone repeats. Dirk is a choker was one I heard often before 2011. This season I’ve heard the inaugural MDM. First on a forum, and then later when I watched it’s inception from the mouth of Charles Barkley during the Hawks/Heat match up. Joe Johnson and the Hawks are bad lazy basketball players who are done getting better. Why? Their top four players have been together as long as the Celtics and Lakers. They have all the talent but have never made it past the second round. The Celtics and Lakers have won titles and made finals… time to laugh at the Hawks.

Now I’ve heard it on talk radio, blogs and sportswriters. Check this Hawks fan:

“There is no doubt that the team can consistently make the playoffs, but is it worth playing every year for a No. 5 or No. 6 seed and a first-round playoff loss?”

But it’s not that simple. In fact, the augment makes little sense at all. Lets look into it.

Do The Hawks Really ‘Have All The Talent’?

Wait… what? So we are comparing the Hawks foursome of Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford and Marvin Williams to Boston’s KG, PP, Ray Ray and Rondo. Or LA’s Kobe/Pau/Odom and Bynum/Fisher. Is this sane?

Pau Gasol came to LA in his 7′th year. Many considered Kobe to be the best player in the league. (not me). Bynum when healthy is in the best big in the league discussion. Fisher is a ultra-seasoned championship vet. Odom is the toughest match-up in the league and post-prime is the reigning 6′th man of the year.

KG came to Boston as a former (near unanimous) MVP, best player alive candidate, and won DPOY that year.  Ray Allen went to Boston after averaging 26.4 PPG 4.5 boards and 4.1 dimes and was arguably the best 2 guard in the league. Paul Pierce put up 27 PPG, 7 boards and 5 dimes his last healthy season. Rondo/Perkins were already recognized as totally elite defenders at their position (if not the best).

What's Older: The Collisium Or The Celtics Combined Experience?

That’s before role guys. Boston is nuts. Shaq, Stephon Marbury, Nate Robinson, Big Baby, Jermaine O’Neal, Sam Cassell. LA even had Ron Artest,  Trevor Ariza (playing awesome that one year) and players who made solid contributions to their runs from the bench. They’ve been so talented Odom was even coming off the bench for many games.

So who the Hawks got? Joe Johnson is a super solid player, but has never been in the top 10 discussion. Al Horford is nice but is still on his rookie contract and only came into his own two seasons ago when it was clear he was still learning the ropes. Josh Smith is a legit player but never made the all-star team. Part of that is because it’s so competitive but all the more reason to not compare them to Boston/LA who played with the best bigs in the game who ‘were’ getting those selections. Marvin Williams is and always has been a project player and in no way has he shown Fisher’s veteran savvy or Rondo/Perkins’ ability to impact the game.

Lets count it up. Horford is a 2 time all-star. Johnson is a 5 time all-star. Atlanta has 7 combined selections.

LA’s team in 2009 had 17 combined selections. In 2010 they had 18. Beyond that, their bigs Odom and Bynum never made an all-star team but play at that level.

In Boston it’s dizzying to count. Their 2010 finalist team had a whopping total of 40 all-star selections playing for it. There is no reason to place LA/Boston expectations on a team like the Hawks with no top 10 players and developing young guys/busts. The only common trend is number of games played together as if talent in the NBA is equal across all teams.

Have The Hawks Under Or Over Achieved?

Atlanta as shown has never been tooled to compete with the Bostons, Miamis and Lakers. You get real recognition by having deep playoff runs as Reggie brought up they’ve never been out of the second round as evidence of how bad they were. But lets look at their results.

2008: They went out very respectibly to the eventual champion Celtics in 7 games playing them tougher then the Lakers managed in the finals. Almost had a HUGE upset when getting swept was predicted. Over-achieved. Check out Joe Johnson keeping his team in a series they were supposed to be swept in.

2009: That was after beating a tough Miami team with Wade going merely apeshit on them. Then got flattened by a much better Cavs team who had the best record in the league and Lebron going positively, utterly ape shit crazy on them. He opened that series shooting 60%, 64% and 60% and finished it shooting 60%, 50% and 50% from 3. The last game was not as impressive but that series was already over. Expectations met.

2010: Beat a very resilient Bucks team that had the official “team no one wants to play” status. They were totally legit. Then got flattened by the Magic. They lacked any way to compete with Dwight going positively, utterly ape shit on them. Dwight shot 84% in that series and opened with 12, 17 and 16 rebound games with 10, 18 and 18 free throw attempts. The only recourse they had to compete was to foul Dwight every time he got the ball. Expectations met.

2011: Then last year they handled the Magic. They shouldn’t have considering that Dwight was even more dominant. A lot of this has to do with Horford growing and coming into his own. A lot of it has to do with the Magic being not quite as good as the year before. The Hawks were still not supposed to win. At all. Then gave the Bulls all they could handle for 5 games till they got crushed in game 6. After 4 games, the Hawks had outplayed the Bulls, which they had 0 business doing. Over-achieved.

Is Joe Johnson Really A Junk Player?

All you have to do is look at Johnson’s stats from last year to tell that he’s lost it and his prime is over, right? His stats are down across the board right? Well, not really. It’s true his stats are down but it’s also no secret in Atlanta that this was because of nagging thumb injuries that nagged him all season producing his worst 3 point shooting output of his career. He shot mildly worse in Boston but it doesn’t count.

You Don't Get To Sit Here Five Times Straight If You Are Junk

For Johnson’s detractors from his great all around game I’d point to his 5 straight years as an all-star compared to his output while playing hurt to help the team. An injury he over-came by the playoffs to help lead his team to the second round over the favored Magic and to compete with the Bulls. Joe Johnson might not be worth his entire contract, he might not be a top 10 player in the NBA, but he is a legitimate great star player who only adds things to the table without taking a single thing off.

His contract isn’t even close to one of the worst in the league either. He’s making 16 million. Much less then Gilbert Arenas or Rashard Lewis who are coming off the bench. Reggie claims that he has to produce more to make that kind of money, but established stars producing more then Johnson mostly get paid more.

Aren’t We Forgetting Someone?

Who’s that important person who makes the difference on ‘every’ championship team I can ever think of? That’s right, the coach. It’s really not fair to compare these teams without looking at the coaching. Now, no disrespect to Mike Woodson (okay, he sucked and lost the team) or Larry Drew (who seems to be doing a better job) but there is just no comparison to LA with the godfather of coaching, Phil Jackson and Doc in Boston. Both Coach Of The Year (COY) winners.

Doc Rivers built himself up over years to actually become a very good, if not top flight coach and by the 2008 finals it did look like Doc out-coached Phil. Then in 2011 Doc’s assistant, Tom Thibodeau, went to Chicago and promptly won his own COY award. Not to mention Jackson’s partnership with hoops legend and triangle offense inventor Tex Winter and other quality assistants. That’s a lot of brains on the benches.

Considering that this whole conversation was about how the Hawks don’t look prepared and don’t execute optimally on the floor all the time it seems it may be a problem coaching issue rather then blame the players. I watched Jerry Sloan have amazing executing teams for 20-30 years no matter who was playing. Coaches matter and the Hawks don’t have a great one.

So Whats The Problem Chuck?

Just Sayin... My Great Aunt Forget How Old We Were And Garbled Her Sentences Too...

Chuck’s comment was also predicated on his assertion that the Hawks “got a bunch of old and veteran players.” Joe Johnson is 30, sure. But Josh Smith is 26. Al Horford is 25. Jeff Teague is 23. Marvin Williams is 25. In comparison to the Lakers and Celtics the Hawks starting unit should be on the lookout for Gary Glitter.

This whole segment started when they posted a graphic about how the Hawks were the second oldest team in the league. Charles immediately assumes that this translates to their starters and begins to laugh about how they need to ‘grow up’ and makes his “old guys and veterans” statement about 25 year olds.

As far as I can see there isn’t a problem with the Hawks who are off to a 7-3 start with great wins over Chicago and Miami. Charles however is having some age issues of his own when gems like this come out of his mouth:

And I have a rule when I’m evaluating these teams, this team reached it’s ceiling three years ago.”

First problem: this is not a rule. Just a statement. Second problem: it makes zero sense. Three years ago Horford was starting his second year in the league. He and Williams were both only 22. Josh smith was only 23 when he still jacked 3′s at 25% and was a very ineffective player. How can you claim that a team hit it’s ceiling when 3 of the four main starters you are still years away from their primes?

And That Missing Piece Is...

If there’s a real problem it’s that Atlanta is just one piece away from pulling it all together. The real problem is that they passed on Chris Paul and Deron Williams. As a result they’ve got no one to effectively run an offence except Johnson who’s so much more effective playing off a good point. Marvin Williams has skills but he’s never going to be that guy or good enough to erase their need for a great PG either. Jeff Teague is actually looking like he’s up for the challenge and should he succeed people need to look out for this team.

So It’s Really Your Problem Chuck? Can You Stop Sounding Stupid?

Listen I like Joe Johnson he’s a good player, but they’re not gonna get past the first round of the playoffs, they could have got that for 10 million a year.

You probably could have gotten Joe Johnson for less money, but 10 million would have seen him signed with another team. That’s pretty dumb in and of itself. What’s really dumb is that Atlanta has made the second round of the playoffs every year since 2008 when they narrowly missed them by taking the eventual champion Celtics to 7 games in the first round.

But Chuck, Really, What Is The Problem? No, not you too… Reggie?

Having two of your childhood idols, who in their day unquestionably had the two most entertaining quotes in the game, call a game ‘sounds’ like it’s going to be amazing right? Right? Not when they insist on making uninformed moronic statements it’s not.

Reggie: Just look at his point production over the last 5 seasons.

We Are Scratching Our Heads Too Joe... Why They Hatin?

On the graphic they show his production from 2007. 25.0, 21.7, 21.4, 21.3, 18.2, 16.0. That looks bad no? It’s not. When you consider that the year before in Atlanta he score 20 PPG you see the uptick for what it was. A peak from a team that really needed him to carry more scoring load. The next season they drafted Horford and flipped Tyrone Lue for a still prime Mike Bibby. The team was much more balanced so Johnson played a more balanced role in a team oriented offence.

What the numbers actually reflect is 6 straight years of incredibly consistent point production. 2011′s injury affected season. And Johnson’s average over the first paltry four games of the season. Packaged neatly to look as if an unwarranted decline took place. Chuck keeps going though.

Yea but lemme tell ya something. I blame… It’s going back to Phoenix. You look at Boris Diaw. You look at Shawn Marion. All those guy’s numbers were inflated because of that system. Mike D’antoni has a great offensive system. So people think guys cuz they average a lot of numbers they are better then they actually are cuz they average an extra 6 points a game.

Oh Chuck. Joe Johnson peaked out in Phoenix averaging 17 PPG before coming to Atlanta. He’s put up a higher PPG in every season since he’s left for six straight seasons now playing fewer minutes in most of those seasons then he did in Phoenix.

This Is Where Media Driven Misconceptions Come From

Chuck’s opinion is given lots of water because he was a great player. He was given his job as an analyst because he’s a highly entertaining personality. If he read my article on how to fake his job maybe he wouldn’t be so transparent. Unfortunately it really doesn’t look like Charles Barkley ‘knows’ the league. He’s being paid huge money to fake it.

In only a few minutes he reveals that he thought a team of 22 and 23 year olds had peaked being all they could be.

• He ‘forgot’ that Atlanta had made the second round for 4 and almost 5 straight years.
• He wasn’t even aware that Joe Johnson made a HUGE statistical leap when he went to Atlanta and played far better then he had in Phoenix where the Suns were actually holding him back.
• He’s seems to have no idea of how old major players in the league are (a huge factor in evaluating teams)
• He seems to be having trouble forming complete logical sentences.

Not that this matters. What does matter is he’s on TV and millions of people hear him say the same thing without the knowledge to defend themselves from the misinformation. The birth of the Media Driven Misconception.

Stop The Blood Clot Crying! Just Because Someone Is On TV It Does Not Mean They Know What They Are Talking About!

Sportswriters running out of ideas jump on it and without researching the idea (someone famous said it, it must be true) they begin to sculpt a narrative that’s easy to digest but low on factual nutrition. It’s published. People read it and start repeating the MDM to their friends and on the internet as talking points. All of a sudden a consensus starts to build and an idea that’s factually incorrect enters the public consciousness as if it were fact.

The MDM states the Atlanta Hawks have hit their ceiling because no one on their team was willing to act their age and be serious about the game when they had the chance to win titles. The reality is they have 2 legitimately great players in Smith and Horford who are just starting to enter their primes and one legitimately great player who’s on the tail end of his who will continue to be very good into his 30′s because his game is based on skill and hoops IQ instead of athleticism.

It’s the Matrix. MDM’s are all around you. They control the politics you vote on, the websites you read and the sports you watch always cavorting as insightful commentary in the face of informed opinions. I’m not going to make some blue pill/red pill cliche, but will leave you with this. Do your own research. Believe none of what you read, half of what you see and if they win a ring or not, don’t give up on the Atlanta Hawks.

If Whoopi Can Act, I Can Be Commish

It’s a fun contest they have kids play. Be the Mayor or Chief Of Police for a day. They’ll go around as everyone pretends they’re in charge to humour them. In the movies they take it to the next level and the winner will start making major decisions that, by god, save the town from inevitable disaster.

So what if the job was NBA commissioner and instead of a movie it was reality? Here’s what I’d do. Not reducing the schedule to 40 games. No huge changes. I’ve previously made lists of big ways to fix All Star, the NBA twice and the useless discipline system. These are just small changes that would be felt across the NBA.

1. Mic Players And Refs

Why Can’t An NBA Player Swear Like A Hockey Player

I want to hear everything. This really only works with the near removal of fines for things players/refs say. Is it worth it? Yes. When I watched HBO’s epic series, 24/7 – The Road To The Winter Classic I was constantly thinking one of three things. First, the supreme intensity and entertainment value of hockey at it’s best. Nice come back NHL. Second: what if the NBA was not so paranoid about it’s image that it let the game be a man’s game again. Third: what if they actually let us see that raw, real hoop at the highest level for what it was always supposed to be?

I’m sick of NBA Cares. I want trash talk and stares.

2. Get Rid Of Homer Announcers, And Loosen Up The Heavies

Reggie Kind Of Sucks At His New Job But He’s Clearly Not Being Himself

Every once in a while when you watch feeds or downloaded games, they forget to flip a switch and you catch announcers talking when they don’t know it’s on. It’s better. They give their real opinions instead of the postured ones. Their banter is better. (Reggie warned Kevin Harlen not to give him a golden shower during one game). Their analysis is better. Let them loose off the leash. Let them be themselves.

That would improve things. Removing Homer announcers would entirely change how the game is portrayed. Homers in general suck and the Homer Booth only creates more of them when they actually take something that Stacey King says seriously while openly cheer for the Bulls. Tommy Heinsohn also deserves strong mention. Get rid of all of them and replace them with real people who actually know how to call a game. Speaking of which…

3. Hire Gus Johnson To Call Everything

Gus Isn’t Screaming, He’s Calling His Own Demise… With Excitement

If Marv Albert is the greatest hoops announcer ever, then Gus is #2, except Gus is actually #1. No one. No. One. Calls an exciting game better then Gus Johnson. He elevates how the sport of basketball is perceived by a brain processing it. I’ve mentioned in this space before how Gus Johnson got me excited calling the ball boys wiping up sweat after a foul. I looked up fully expecting them to do something miraculous and laughed at myself.

It’s time for the NBA to hire this guy to call huge games and the playoffs. Announcers are all trying to be the next Chick Hearn. “Hand down man down” pretty much means nothing and we have to get back to people who actually get into what they’re watching. I don’t care about how the Van Gundy brothers used to play in their driveway. Why not put Dick Vitale beside Gus Johnson? Could you imagine how much better the Bulls/Celtics classic series would have been with them? How could this not make the NBA product better?

4. Remove All Canned Music From Stadiums, Only Organs Allowed

Humber Gardens: Home Of The Corner Brook Royals Where My Dad’s Organ Rocked Fans Into A Frenzy

When I was a child, my father would take me to see the Corner Brook Royals play hockey in my sparsely populated home town. We didn’t have to pay to get in. Why? Because my dad played the organ for all the hockey games. When they won the national title in 1986, they made sure to bring him with them.

Why?

Because in sports, organs matter. To this day, 25 years later and after he passed on, people still contact me about their memories of my father. He’d get them going to another level they didn’t think possible a minute before. I sat beside him seeing him work an entire stadium on a PA I still own today. He’d see that the team was sluggish and knew what songs to play to get the crowd going for one last boost in the 3′rd. Musicians feel crowds, gather their energy, and feed it back in like an amplifier circuit. The Pussycat Dolls just suck.

I remember watching MJ, Reggie et al do some of their most amazing feats without fireworks or the latest pop sensation playing on speakers while the game was on. NYC still has that organ and I noticed it like an old friend I hadn’t seen in a decade these past playoffs. It’s still awesome and rockin MSG. Everyone agrees so I’d put them everywhere. Thanks for the memories Dad! Organs matter.

5.Buy The NBA On NBC Theme Song

It’s just better. Yes, it was written by an enormous douche John Tesh, yes, he spent years wasting a nation’s brain cells on Entertainment Tonight, but we’ll give him this, he wrote the best sports theme song ever. So just shell out NBA, spend what it takes. Get the theme song from NBC and force everyone to use it. It’s called branding and unfortunately you sold out the guys who branded the NBA better then anyone to ABC’s Survivor money. It’s not too late though and everything has it’s price. Get the song and every opening to every game is instantly better. Fact.

6. One Ring To Rule Them All

Or one ring of announcers? Just out-right hire the announcers and broadcast staff from all the networks. Take some control over how the NBA product is packaged and published. Why are we listening to Magic say just about nothing in the NBA finals when TNT’s crew is so much better? It’s silly we listen to Mark Jackson when Marv Albert is alive. Just find a way so that the best people covering the game are there when it matters. Make it part of the TV contracts that networks have to share guys and make the best product possible for the good of all.

7. Let The Refs Give Interviews

If Refs Could Explain This Conversation Maybe People Could Understand Why Their Horrible Calls Ruin Games Instead Of Judge Them For It

Of all the baffling rules the NBA has this is the cake. Why not let officials give interviews after games? I’m sure they’re grown men who won’t buckle under the pressure and embarrass the league… the players do a good enough job of that. If a ref made a bad call he can explain what happened and 9 times out of 10 it’s going to make sense. Let them defend themselves instead of just getting killed in the press along with the NBA’s image. If they can just explain the thought processes maybe people will understand more. Ref’s will also instinctively be more motivated to get calls right if they know they have to explain themselves after. It’s just so black and white.


8. Provide Better Stats

If Derek Fisher Leads The League In Charges For The 10′th Time And There’s No Stats, Does Anyone Care?

The work for many unpublished stats is already done and sitting in the NBA’s databases. All they need to do is release it. Not even release, they just need to display it. Use it.

Take drawn charges. We see them in the play by play, but you have to go to hoopdata.com for a list of leaders. There’s a plethora of other stats that are MIA. Quarterly stats? Open shot percentage? Shot contests? Hockey assists? All these things invariably matter but the NBA just doesn’t seem bothered to acknowledge, record and publish the information.

When they do, it’s going to look quite stupid in years to come, much like not having the shot blocking numbers from Bill Russell or Wilt’s career looks today.

It’s not from a lack of interest. It’s not from a lack of resources to do these tasks. If some behaviour on a basketball court helps teams win and can be quantified, we should have stats on it. Derek Fisher gets almost 0 love from a statistical ranking because he does things that don’t go in box scores. He’s maybe the best player in the league over the past 10 years at something very important but is just seen as a role player.


9. Add A 4 Point Line

Why not? If you hit a shot from behind half court or even 35 feet it should be worth more simply because it’s exponentially harder. It’s more spectacular. As I see it, anything that helps a desperate team get back in it when they are on the ropes should be a go. Could you imagine how intense a 5 point play would be to swing a game?

When I went to ABA games in Halifax they had a great rule. Force a TO in the back court and a light went on. If you made the basket on the ensuing possession you got an extra point. Leads were not as safe and players D’ed up to win because even if they were down 10 points, they knew they were in it. Desperation creates drama.

10. Make The Court Bigger

They Dropped The Cages, Why Keep The Floor?

I’m a little surprised this has never been experimented with before. The court is not designed with a specific purpose. It’s an arbitrary 50 feet wide. Even if there was a method to this it’s long since become irrelevant. Players have become incredibly bigger, stronger and faster. The space may have been good for people with peach baskets, maybe it even suited the guys in the 50′s, but for much too long the game has been cramped into either end of the court.

When the NBA adopted the 3 point line in 1980 rather then sensibly widen the court since players would now be spaced out more they shortened the line on the sides. The result: players have 3 feet on either side of the court to work in. Why? Is this better? The elite athletes of the NBA can cover this distance in 2-3 steps. They never really get a chance to get going in any half-court set slowing down the action and making it easier for weaker athletes to defend. Not even to mention, this style of play is largely responsible for so many injuries that hamper the marketability of the game.

Widening the court will give players more room to operate and open things up for the most athletic/talented players. It creates an all around more exciting experience. Instead of getting trapped in the corner we’ll see split double teams and widened passing/attacking lanes for better ball movement and so many more vicious assaults on the rim.

Of course. this is not the movies, and I’ll never be commish of the NBA, but it does not stop me from playing the what if game. I still often wonder why the NBA is so reluctant to experiment with even minute changes to improve things for all. David Stern loves to talk about the tradition of the game, but in reality I think he’s just a pretty unimaginative guy who’s more about the NBA’s books then the game itself. The only change he’s gone after, The New Ball, blew up in his face because it was actually just a marketing gimmick they’d put no thought into.

Bad Movie, Good Idea

It’s likely to never happen, but I’ve never understood why teams, owners and the league office are so bloody content when they are sitting on such a base of talent. Why not shake things up a little and make some harmless changes? Why not have a commish for a day contest? Haven’t they ever seen Little Big League?